August 7, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Laurence Binyon
Fact is the toughest market to trade is one that is subject to geopolitical news. The fear that ebbs and flows as rumors which might become substantiated facts-might-create more gyrations then a belly dancer after imbibing two cups of Turkish coffee!
NASDAQ, now actually getting a bit annoying, is holding onto that 50 DMA, with one quick drop below intraday only to marginally close above it. Why is that annoying? Because, as the holdout on going negative, it has just enough life to make bulls nervous and make bears ask themselves why they just got suckered into selling the low tick?
Looking at volume in the QQQ, we have had 3 Distribution days (when the volume exceeds the volume from the day prior and the instrument closes in the red) in the last two weeks. That and the other indices all transitioning to more negative phases does suggest more downside in store.
The Dow has already had 4 Distribution days which signals strong warning. One more in QQQs and it’s a royal flush! Let’s put it this way, always ready for anything, I would nonetheless be rather surprised to see this market turn right back up.
For now, let’s call this short-term neutral, intermediate term negative under a dome of trendless, choppy action.
S&P 500 (SPY) Closed on new lows for the week and new 60-day lows. Only a move over 194 will save this from a visit to the 200 DMA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Under 110, 108 is the May low area. Over 112.50 perhaps some new life
Dow (DIA) Oh 200 DMA, I want you so badly!
Nasdaq (QQQ) 94.00 is the 50 DMA. If that holds and this turns up on good volume, I will get more positive. For now, that line in the sand looks even more precarious.
XLF (Financials) May lows are under the 200 DMA-therefore, looking at 21.50
SMH (Semiconductors) Strengthening warning phase
IBB (Biotechnology) And, back to warning phase
XRT (Retail) Talk about your sideways trendless but wanna be bull chart formation!
GLD Confirmed bullish phase
Metals and Mining (XME) Has to take out 43.00
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed warning phase Subscribers: Possible slingshot low and one that confirms over R1 36.30 with a great risk to today’s low if does
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 2 Inside days and worth following the way the range breaks
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs –Will they ever stop?
UUP (Dollar Bull) No confirmation of a reversal top so still ok
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