Disparate Price Movements Provoke Confusion

December 12, 2016

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Francis Picabia Artist 1879-1953
Picabia, known as Papa Dada, purposely layered disparate images in his collages to provoke confusion and strange associations.

I feature the piece above now on display at MOMA, mainly because of how closely the red and green ribbons resemble current equity price movements.
“Our Heads Are Round so Our Thoughts Can Change Direction” perfectly describes recent market price fluctuations.

Like Picabia himself, the market paints a new world paradigm punctuated by confusion and strange associations. Thoughts that changed direction surely explain the post-election market.

On November 9th, those round heads willed the rally in Financials and Transportation while they summoned the depths in Biotechnology and Commodities.

One month later and with the euphoria possibly waning, will the thoughts of the round heads change direction again?

Perhaps I merely concoct a poetic way to say that the market is overdue for a correction. Nevertheless, whether a correction or a shift in the collective consciousness, today’s action does indeed provoke a level of confusion.

All the roundhead talk of 20,000 in the Dow evokes thoughts of the gremlins the market saw for the longest time on the wing of the plane at 18k. Only now, with this higher altitude, the gremlins might prove even more unpredictable.

Those gremlins at 20,000 could take the shape of the Russell 2000. After making new highs Friday, today, Granddad IWM formed a topping-type pattern.

That topping pattern appears again in KRE, Regional Banks, IYT, Transportation, SMH Semiconductors and in XRT, Retail.

Why is this significant?

The round heads of 5 out of the 6 Modern Family members might have changed direction. IBB, Biotechnology and our 6th family member, entered a Bearish Phase today.

Undoubtedly, bad press about big pharma price gouging hasn’t helped. But as an integral part of the Modern Family, it does give us a window seat to view the gremlins that dance on the wing of the most heavily speculated sector.

Since the election, the Fed has taken a backseat on the plane. This week, they upgrade to business-class. Therefore, although the trip to 20,000 just experienced turbulence, we may not have to embrace for impact yet. Tip: I’d fasten my seatbelt regardless.

I apologize as some of the piece is cut off since photographs are a no-no at MOMA. However, Picabia should forgive me for taking this photo as he endorsed breaking the rules!

Finally, thank you Ms. Barbara Kollmeyer at MarketWatch, for including me on the list of “50 Twitter accounts for investors to follow in 2017” Awesome!

S&P 500 (SPY) Under 225 will give this pause

Russell 2000 (IWM) 134-134.50 pivotal support to watch.

Dow (DIA) A start under 198 will bring in the sellers. Support at 194

Nasdaq (QQQ) 119.65 point to clear and 117 the point to hold

KRE (Regional Banks) 54 pivotal support.

SMH (Semiconductors) 72.30 if clears good. Otherwise, 70.50 support to hold for strength

IYT (Transportation) 165 support

IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 275, could see move to 240

XRT (Retail) A break of 45.50 would be where the real fun begins.

IYR (Real Estate) Early November this had a reversal off the lows. A dovish Fed could have this playing catch up

SLV (Silver) A weekly close over 16.35 bullish

USO (US Oil Fund) 10.80 underlying support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Too soon to say bear trap-but that’s what I am watching for

UUP (Dollar Bull) Correction time unless clears 26.34. 25.80 in focus

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