July 22, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Long live the new boy King born on the day of the Super Moon! His historical birthday will also be noted as a new high close in the S&P 500. Could it be the new and all-time high? Of course anything is possible. At this point though, the extremely low volume seems more akin to digestion rather than a solid top. The small caps (Russell 2000) followed in kind while the Dow closed just below the old 2013 high (old highs for a year should ideally become support areas, especially when those high prices are from May 22nd or peak highs for nearly 2 months). NASDAQ continues to be the most compelling index right now as it is holding the gap low from July 11th (74.25) but failed to take out 74.95, the old 2013 high. With Apple and Amazon earnings nearly upon us, the market might take yet one more day of low volume before it tells us which way from here. Gold jumped 3% or over $100 from its peak low June 28th. Rates dropped nominally compared to the US dollar which is once again testing longer term support. It may be summer, but doldrums are in the eyes of the beholder!
S&P 500 (SPY)169.07 the prior high from May 22nd, now a good level to want to see hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Runaway gap low 101.94 and most critical underlying number to hold now
Dow (DIA)155.14 the May 22nd high to launch or fail from
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Pivots positive here and in all indexes
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Another new high performance
SMH (Semiconductors) Texas Instruments firmed in the post market which could help this after the hold of the 50 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Inside day. Room above and below last 8 trading days
IYT (Transportation) Inside day and near the highs.
IBB (Biotechnology) Doji day on new highs
IYR (Real Estate)69.00 has to hold now
XHB (Homebuilders) Managed to confirm the bullish phase
GLDCouldn’t clear the 50 DMA but a spectacular move off the textbook lows
USO (US Oil Fund)Possible topping action that needs confirmation
OIH (Oil Services)Possible topping action that needs confirmation
XLE (Energy) Same as USO and OIH
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Still has the 2013 highs ahead of it at 63.30
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Filled a gap on the daily chart from July 3rd with a doji day.
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