April 28, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
That April 15th high taunts us in all the indexes with only the S&P 500 closing the week out above it. Friday was such a slow day, I was able to lunch with the ladies, a most welcome respite after an exhausting but highly profitable week thanks to holding WYNN until right before earnings and Intel (INTC) from right after earnings. And, if you are a consistent reader of the daily, a long position in the ETF for semiconductors, which I have made no secret of. Incidentally, the other positions were posted on twitter. All week long, the thought that ran through many investors heads is how hard the market is working to stay strong. Typically, the stock market is a predictor not a laggard, around 6 months ahead of the economic facts. So, in spite of the markets inability to end the week on new highs, ending darn close to them has to mean the anticipation is for some positive numbers ahead. Of course, always subject to change, the savvy traders take profits on the rallies and look for buy opportunities on the dips.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume retreat from the highs but, held the 4/15 high 158.13. That becomes a good number to judge how Monday might go from. Above, confidence abounds, below, another trip to the 156 level Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indexes (DIA more neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) 93.15 is the pivotal 4/15 high. It tested the 50 DMA and held. But, every rally in this index has made lower highs. Still a reason for caution here.
Dow (DIA) Closed green but not above the 4/15 high. Fueled the rally a few weeks ago. If it gives it up next week, will change bias to a more negative one.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Friday's high was just under the 4/15 high 69.79. But, it didn't close alarmingly therefore, good place to check out for a move above or below Friday's high
ETFs:
GLD 140 is a big level-if defends it, still looking like an island bottom. If not, good place to look for a short
XLF (Financials) 18.50 pivotal. 18.20 big support
SMH (Semiconductors) If this dips to 35.40, see that as a buy opportunity
XRT (Retail) Cleared72.79, its 4/15 high, ending the week with an inside day. Strength here is a good sign.
IYT (Transportation) Closed right at the 4/15 high both Thursday and Friday and with a doji day.
IYR (Real Estate) Two doji days in a row, then ended the week with an inside day. Could be signs of fatigue unless it clears the new highs
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day just below the 50 DMA. After the big move up, looks more like a rest than a top
OIH (Oil Services) Another group making lower highs on every move up.
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA remains resistance ending the week with a doji candle.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed weak although held the recent low 58.97.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Began 2013 with a very bullish move and since its peak high in March, making lower highs.
XHB (Homebuilders) Friday, even with the strong session, could not clear 30.66, the 2013 high.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the 200 weekly moving average.
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