August 5, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The gap higher and ensuing follow-through during Friday's session on low volume suggests that the intact bull phase, although tested earlier in the week, prevails. But alas, with not that much interest. At least, not yet anyway. The several attempts at 65.31 in NASDAQ 100 now become support. Clearly, even the weaker Russell 2000 was able to defend a swing low from late July and run back to safety above the 200 Daily Moving Average. Makes for some real interesting trading alright. It also speaks to the beauty of technical trading, letting the market dictate and leaving one's "opinions" at the door.
S&P 500 (SPY) 139.34 was the most recent high until Friday. Now that becomes some support with Friday's low more important to defend. It's the best close since May.
Russell 2000 (IWM) How many of you followed this over 77.70? This did get some decent volume. Now, Friday's low big support to hold. 80.00 is the next hurdle.
Dow (DIA) As the best hope coming into Friday, did not disappoint. Now needs to hold Friday low and get convincingly through 131.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Defended 64.00 after 4 days in decline, gapped higher and closed on new 4 month highs.
ETFs:
GLD Underperformed after it gapped lower earlier in the week. No clear signals just yet
XLF (Financials) Cleared 14.85. If you believe in breakouts, this should now trend higher.
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed accumulation phase.
XRT (Retail) If all's good in the US economy again, this sector has to get going. Over 60.00 should make that happen
IYT (Transportation) Love this group since it's like the designated driver. Sobering, since it did not cross the 200 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) 66.10 should cross and hold if going to see another leg up
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed that the recovery phase is real. Now, watch to see if it has potential to the 200 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) 40.15 next hurdle and the 200 DMA support to hold
XLE (Energy) 69.40 key support. 70.00 closer near-term support as the gap low from Friday
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 14.70 should hold and needs to clear the 50 DMA.
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