Economic Modern Family’s Tilt-a-Whirl to Nowhere

October 6, 2024

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

The Tilt-A-Whirl is a flat ride used at amusement parks, fairs and carnivals.

It is a platform-type ride with several freely spinning cars which are attached at fixed pivot points on a rotating platform.

I am not a huge fan of rides that upset one’s equilibrium, but I do find the Tilt-a-Whirl palatable.

More importantly, it is a ride that spins on fixed points, and that is exactly what we can see happening with the Economic Modern Family.

The weekly charts show lots of spinning in place. Whilst spinning, investors are experiencing a sense of imbalance.

The market gyrates up and down, but ultimately, that freely spinning index or sector (excluding commodities here), wind up back at the fixed pivot point.

Particularly Granny Retal XRT, after wars, weather, strikes, jobs reports, and Fed speak, here she is still in a trading range that basically dates to January 2024.

Why is this significant?

Because when that range breaks one way or another, the move will be strong and for those on the right side, profitable.

XRT and Granddad IWM have the clearest trading ranges going back the whole year.

That is what we are focused on mainly.

However, Biotech IBB is also in a trading range starting from July.

Regional Banks KRE have the same timeline.

Transportation IYT is more volatile this year, unsurprisingly.

But that sector also trades between $60-$71.

The sector that has had the most volatility though is our Sister Semiconductors SMH.

Before we look at our Sister, we must look at her brother Crypto through the lens of Bitcoin.

Talk about a Titl-a-Whirl!

If we put the bears on one spinning car and the bulls on the other, where do they wind up at the end of ride?

In the middle of the same trading range it has been in since February.

The point of this is extremely simple:

Unless you love the thrill of the ride to nowhere, just wait.

Once the ranges break, you will be in control of the ride, rather than the reverse.

This is the Daily chart of Semiconductors SMH, which I show you because the sector has underperformed this year.

While currently SMH on the Leadership chart shows an outperformance to SPY, the July calendar range from July tells a different story.

SMH is under the July 6-month calendar range, yet in a bullish phase.

Real Motion Is in a strong bearish divergence.

Since mid-July, we can see that 256 is the resistance to clear. However, the support levels are not as clearly defined.

Once again, I give you the notion that we must watch how XRT, IWM and IYT reconcile.

And in the meanwhile, also make sure SMH does not fail 235 or the 50-day moving average.

But until then, be patient, be active, and be optimistic that these ranges will not only reconcile but also give us many trading opportunities in the coming months.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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