"Elementary My Dear Watson"

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Most notable for Tuesday is that the Small Caps or Russell 2000 had an inside day (when the range of the day, high to low, is within the range of the day before). This interprets as a pause, which I find interesting as the other indexes S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow all took out Monday highs only to close below. And that’s the type of sleuthing this market now requires, especially ahead of the release of the FED minutes tomorrow. Intense sleuthing is necessary when the market stops at the highs to look around. We investors try to figure out whether the pause is to smell the roses and move on or to retreat into hibernation after too much sun exposure.

S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume everything intact but at the ready should selling come in under 166.50

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. Low volume. Good clue to see which way today’s range breaks tomorrow

Dow (DIA) The weekly Bollinger Band continues to rise-and with today’s close right on that number, certainly one to watch for a hold or failure of 153.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Today’s low, like in the other sectors, is a good point to watch.

ETFs:

GLD Defended and held 130.50 Monday and had an inside day today.

XLF (Financials) At 20.00 our swing position long from April was a good place to lighten up. Keeping a core long though, as unless this breaks the 50 DMA, a correction will look more like noise.

IBB (Biotechnology) Held the fast moving average with a bounce. If 179 level holds never count this one out completely

SMH (Semiconductors) 38.00 is a retracement to the channel breakout on the monthly chart

XRT (Retail) Negated the bearish candle from last week which is why confirmations are smart and necessary

IYT (Transportation) Under 116 expect some more correction here.

IYR (Real Estate) Got to the tippy top of the weekly Bollinger Band. Like all the other leading sectors, a rest would not be the worst thing in the world if you missed this last boat.

USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 point to clear

OIH (Oil Services) After taking out the 2012 and recent 2013 high, a slight rest with 45.00 near-term support

XLE (Energy)

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Until the FED minutes are released, hard to predict. But, looking at phase, hanging tough in the accumulation one

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Took a rest but still above a key trendline. Subscribers: A possible slingshot high but would have to confirm that

XHB (Homebuilders) Needs to clear 32.55.

UUP (Dollar Bull) No island top since the gap to 22.88 was filled. Once above that area, the move up should continue

UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) Confirmed bullish phase

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