June 24, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
"Every Silver Lining Has a Touch of Grey" Grateful Dead
Here is how perverse one’s mind can be-it almost seemed like Monday’s action was positive-after all; it came back from the intraday lows, got above Friday’s lows in the Dow and other indexes, with decent volume. But then, end of day, the sellers came back with the Dow closing beneath Friday’s lows. Once again, if we have anywhere to look for a tangible silver lining, it’s in the small caps or Russell 2000s. That tested but held the May 3rd runaway gap low plus closed above Friday’s low. But, before we call out the trumpets, it is now back in an unconfirmed warning phase. Certain instruments look better for a possible bottom in place (individual stocks, soft commodities). But looking strictly at long bonds and interest rates, although it made a new multi-year low early on and rallied from those lows, (also held a long-term weekly moving average) it has another day to really prove itself. For now, best we can say is that it worked off some oversold conditions in its current bear phase.
S&P 500 (SPY)A move over Monday’s high might spur a rally. But, the overhead 50 DMA is now resistance.
Russell 2000 (IWM) As mentioned, held the runaway gap low but did fill the gap from late April and is now in an unconfirmed warning phase. Like with SPY, over Monday’s high will look better, with the 50 DMA close by. As with all indexes, getting oversold
Dow (DIA) 146 giving this some support and only a move over 150 or so would be encouraging
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)68.00-69.00-these are the levels we were watching in the early part of the year.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)One by one the ETFs are breaking down. 18.50 is next support level.
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.45 is the low of the runaway gap move.
XRT (Retail) Also holding the runaway gap low making 74.00 a good support area to watch
IYR (Real Estate)Tried hard here but closed more in the middle of the range after making new 2013 lows. But, keeping eyes on this over 65.50
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