March 24, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
This is a big week for data concerning the consumer.
PCE is coming out Friday.
Tariffs remain a political football.
The Fed did not lower rates.
And, from a technical standpoint, XRT, our Granny has the most to gain and to lose.
On the Daily chart, while XRT plays catchup to the SPY, it has yet to outperform since, well, for a very long time.
The phase after the death cross, is bearish.
XRT is well below the January calendar range low, even on this bounce.
And the real motion momentum shows a mean reversion, but momentum still quite weak.
On the weekly chart, the best we can say is that Monday’s action is still within the range of the huge sell off 2 weeks ago.
A move above 71.42 would reverse that week’s damage.
Momentum remains better on the weekly timeframe, but marginally.
And even if XRT clears that bearish bar, it still must get back over the green moving average or the 200-WMA
On the monthly chart…
With 5 trading days left for March and the 1st quarter, the current price trades under the 23-month moving average.
Why is this significant?
Should XRT struggle to close out the month back above the blue line, it will indicate the consumer and consumer spending is in a 2-year business cycle contraction.
And that is after XRT has seen expansion since December 2023.
If XRT cannot hold here, after 2 and ½ years of consumer confidence and optimism, it will be quite clear that has changed.
Of course, with 5 days left, we can be hopeful…
For now, hopeful means patience
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks
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Yahoo Finance Equities need a vote of confidence while hard assets rule 03-18-25
KSFRFM Public Radio Mish on local radio discussing tariffs 101
Coming Up:
March 24 CNBC Asia
April 1 Dave Keller Marketmisbehaving podcast
April 2 Real Vision
April 4 The Money Show in Dallas
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 574 the 200-DMA resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Good bounce and needs so much more
Dow (DIA) Back over the 200-DMA now 420 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 494 the 200-DMA resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 58-59 to clear and one of the better-looking sectors
Semiconductors (SMH) 245 overhead resistance
Transportation (IYT) 65.00 pivotal
Biotechnology (IBB) 134 support 140 to clear
Retail (XRT) 70 now resistance to clear
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