Family Friday: A Lateral Economic Modern Family

September 29, 2024

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


I’d say “if the Economic Modern Family could speak..”

However, they can, and they do.

And what are they saying after a week of China flying, metals rallying, yields and dollar flattening, natural gas bottoming and oil prices dropping?

Not too much….YET!

Let’s examine the weekly charts.

Granny Retail XRT, if you did not see it, the Daily early last week featured a channel that needs to be watched carefully.

The high to low price of this past week was within the high to low price of the week prior (inside week).

The green candle though, shows Granny closed higher on the week.

Hence, the channel remains intact and the longer the better when it finally reconciles.

Granddad Russell IWM also had an inside trading week. Similarly, at some point that trading range will reconcile, and man, will we be ready.

Brother Biotechnology IBB sits proverbially, stuck in the middle, albeit at the top of the 2024 range.

Sister Semiconductors SMH outperformed this past week. But, if you look at the weekly chart, SMH is just in the middle of the range from the lows at 200 and the highs at 280.

Like Granny, Gramps, and her Big Brother, this pause in the action is exciting as when any or all of them move, there will be lots of opportunities.

Before we look at the last 3 members, here is a reminder from another Daily this past week on long bonds:

“A rally in TLT and a potential outperformance of the benchmark could be negative for the dollar and equities, while positive for emerging markets and commodities.”

Looking at the weekly chart of TLT, keep your eyes on the performance versus SPY.

And watch the momentum indicator now looking like a bullish divergence.

Speaking of improving momentum and leadership, behold the weekly chart of Bitcoin.

Not quite there yet, we will watch BTCUSD to see if it continues the drive above 65,000 and how it does compared to SPY.

Transportation, IYT closed higher on the week as well.

With some overhead resistance in its path, we are encouraged that IYT is showing some leadership at this stage.

As we know, Tran can lead the “inside” sectors higher.

Finally, our dear Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE, never made it back over the 200-WMA (green line).

Yet, just like the rest of the gang, the trading range holds up.

With pretty much everyone still meandering and not showing much direction since July, I remind you again-

Watch the long bonds. They could shake up the Family in all kind of ways!

 

I’d like to conclude with a ginormous shout out to Real Vision, which celebrates its 10th Birthday…I am so honored and proud to be a part of their journey-they surely have supported mine!

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here

Business First AM All about long bonds and what to watch for and trade 09-27-24

Money FM 89.3 Singapore Long bonds and emerging markets in focus 09-26-24

Podcast with Geoff Bysshe Never heard of the Economic Modern Family? 09-23-24

Business First AM Why DBC is on Mish's Radar Description-Unsure how to trade this ETF? 09-23-24

Business First AM DJT a Highly Volatile Trade. Mish takes you through levels to hold and to clear 09-23-24

Kitco News Mish and Jeremy discuss how and why gold could head much higher 09—19-24

MarketGauge.com Mish and Geoff discuss how to anticipate and trade current market conditions using MarketGauge's Big View market timing ratio, the XRT ETF and more. 09-17-24

Stockpick.app StockPick.app presents Mish’s lessons in understanding bonds 09-17-24

 

Coming Up:

September 30 CNA Singapore TV

October 1 BNN Bloomberg

December 5-7, 2024 Money Show Master Class

 Weekly: Business First AM, stockpick.app

 

ETF Summary

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)

S&P 500 (SPY) 565 pivotal support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Range 215-225

Dow (DIA) We got to new all-time highs

Nasdaq (QQQ) 485 pivotal

Regional banks (KRE) 52-55 support zone

Semiconductors (SMH) 240 pivotal

Transportation (IYT) 67.00 support 69 resistance

Biotechnology (IBB) 140-142 support zone

Retail (XRT) 77 pivotal

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Still trading above the 200-WMA-healthy

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