July 10, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Turnaround Tuesday alright. Or should I say, turned around Tuesday. However, a couple of trends been pointing out all year-first is the downtrend in Metals, Energy and Oil. Second is the relative strength in Biotech, Retail and Real Estate. With that said, don't fight the tape-the market always tell us when it's safe to get back in.
S&P 500 (SPY) Filled the gap from last Thursday's low and went south. 133.90 is the 50 DMA which it managed to hang onto. Yet another distribution day in volume which means even a low volume rally off the 50 DMA would not necessarily be a cure. Under 133.90, next support 132.85. Over 135, much better scenario.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 10 DMA but with same ugly volume and candlestick patterns as the others, therefore, no cheering. 78.56 the gap low from 6/29. And, if can hold there, first place to look for a possible long entry.
Dow (DIA) Closed in an unconfirmed warning phase with a distribution in volume and a nasty looking bearish engulfing pattern.125.65 next support and now that its approaching oversold on a 2-day RSI, if can hold back above the 50 DMA, could see some relief
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Tested the 50 DMA and closed right there. Over 63.75 could hold up otherwise, look at 62.50 next support.
ETFs:
GLD Snaps out of the doldrums and follows its bear phase by dropping to fill the gap from 6/28 high. This year, held 148.50 three weeks in a row. Big number now.
XLF (Financials) In one day, filled the gaps on the up and downsides. 14.28 a good number to watch for hold or failure.
IBB (Biotechnology) 130 area to watch for hold or failure
SMH (Semiconductors) Has to hold 30.50 to have any chance of 3 higher lows.
XRT (Retail) Interesting range expansion day and outperformer of the market. Eyes here.
IYT (Transportation) 90.85 next support
IYR (Real Estate) Some areas as this corrects. 63.80, 63.35 then 62.50. All are support areas that keeps the current phase intact. 65.19 now major resistance
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