July 11, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
S&P 500 held the 50 DMA and closed with nearly a DOJI as if to say, "What the heck do we do now?" And that was the nature of Wednesday. But, it's also the nature of a market in correction that is changing from Bullish to Warning Phases in only 2 indexes. Russell 2000 is the other hold out besides S&P 500. When all four align, trading is easier. For now, who should we trust-DJ Industrials and NASDAQ both in warning-or the holdouts? Time will tell.
S&P 500 (SPY) As mentioned, still in bull phase. Yesterday I wrote that a low volume rally is not necessarily one to be trusted. But for now, 133.80 is pivotal and a move above Wednesday high a good sign.
Russell 2000 (IWM) So far, holding the gap low from 6/29 which makes this index the most compelling provided that continues to hold.
Dow (DIA) Confirmed the warning phase but with a hammer candle which means might have been forced down by sellers. In other words, over Wednesday high, would think more like worst is over.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 63.50 is big-the 50 DMA, Wednesday high and for those who know, R1. Plus 2-day RSI getting oversold.
ETFs:
GLD Inside day. Watch 153.60 to break or 152 to fail
XLF (Financials) Inside day and wedged between the fast and the 50 DMAs. Over 14.50 clears the 10, under 14.35 breaks the 50 DAM.
IBB (Biotechnology) Had a good short under 130 but for a daytrade. Now, 131.50 to clear or could see 125.75
SMH (Semiconductors) Oversold on daily. No longer looking at the 3 higher lows (would have been nice), but now only a move over 31.10 would look better
XRT (Retail) 58.75 the level to hold now.
IYT (Transportation) 90.85 next support- wrote yesterday. Wednesday low 90.92.
IYR (Real Estate) Closed green. No position but watching
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day
XLE (Energy) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 14.71 low June 1st. Today's low 14.72. Just mentioning
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