March 31, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The Headline at the end of Thursday's session: S&P 500 closes the week at record high for the first time since 2007! However, it did not clear the closing high made on March 14th of 156.73. Thursday's high was posted as 156.67. Could be arguing pennies, however, I like to see exactness since the best barometer I know of is price. The Russell 2000, still lagging, certainly did not come within pennies of the 2013 high, but did clear the fast moving average. The Dow did indeed make new highs on Thursday and closed exactly at the same price it did on March 14th. Finally, NASDAQ cleared the recent resistance intraday and closed EXACTLY where it did on March 11th. Notable is the 2012 high 70.58. Therefore, the indexes are impressive but not completely out of the woods until we see more confirmed upside. Furthermore, I cannot help but feel puzzled that certain equities refuse to rally on this move-GOOG AAPL some Financial stocks GS (Goldman Sachs), DE (John Deere) CAT (Caterpillar), not to mention Steel, Copper.
S&P 500 (SPY) Not overbought therefore, 156 is the new closest support with 156.85 the new point to clear.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Has to clear 95.00 and hold Thursday’s low
Dow (DIA) New highs with overbought RSIs on the weekly chart
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.45 would be a good close support to hold and really would like to see this clear 69.00 convincingly. Interesting that AAPL was not part of this rally on Thursday.
ETFs:
GLD 156.80 to 154.00 its established range for now
XLF (Financials) Still giving me heartburn since it is struggling to clear the fast moving average. Without this group, hard to be fully convinced of Friday's stellar close
IBB (Biotechnology) Carrying the load-as it has been since 2012
SMH (Semiconductors) Back to the 36.17 watch-high of 2012 if 35.00 can hold
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is still a potential double top
IYT (Transportation) Good comeback Thursday. If that low holds, will look for the recent highs to be taken out 112.30
IYR (Real Estate) 2013 high 69.55, matched on Thursday and now point to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) 35.00 should be resistance
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed phase change to bullish
XLE (Energy) Closed out Thursday red, which unless it breaks 78.60 could just be some end of month profit taking
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed the gap from March 25th. Very curious to see how this begins the week-risk on or off.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still has a brick wall at higher levels which has to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Could not close the week above the weekly moving average.
For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
