June 9, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
"Fortune and Glory Kid, Fortune and Glory" $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA
From the low print last Thursday morning to the close last Friday, market recovered 2.7%. The Dow did not quite make it to new highs for the week. Moreover, the nasty reversal candles from May 22nd loom overhead like a Temple of Doom. However, the market is intimating that rates can go up (albeit slowly and methodically we hope), the Federal Reserve can grind down Quantitative Easing (again slowly and methodically) and the slow but steady improvement in certain areas of the economy is more credible. Be that as it may, from the day of the runaway gap until the peak in late May, the volume was super light. Last week, with 200 point swings both up and down, the last 3 trading days brought higher than average volume back!
S&P 500 (SPY) 165.10 was last week’s high which now is the first place to clear. Then, 168 and finally the high high 169.07. Otherwise, a gap lower than Friday’s low and this all could have been a Friday dream.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Friday’s action did not come close to the weekly high made of 99.20. First place to clear provided this does not break 97.00
Dow (DIA) Best news-in last 2 weeks this had 4 accumulation days in volume. Short-term indicators have gone back to positive while intermediate term remains negative and longer term neutral.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Again, could not clear the high tick from last week with only 2 accumulation days in volume over the last 2 weeks. Either has some catching up to do or, telling us to remain somewhat cautious as we head into this week
ETFs:
GLD I patiently waited for the short opportunity and got paid off last Friday with the gap lower and subsequent close on the lows. 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support
XLF (Financials) To me, it’s all about the 80 monthly trend reversal that confirmed in May
IBB (Biotechnology) Outperformed the market with some more work to do.
SMH (Semiconductors) Underperformed last Thursday and Friday, but holding the May lows and 38.00.
XRT (Retail) Like this as long as it holds 78.00
IYT (Transportation) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase
IYR (Real Estate) Marginally confirmed the reversal pattern from last Thursday. Marginally because this closed red.
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed phase change to accumulation. And handily cleared the week’s high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 69.00 cleared with 69.69 the high of the recent move up.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Cleared the weekly high marginally-longer term still of interest
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