Friday Lows Now Key $SPY $QQQ $IWM

July 7, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Friday ended the week as anticipated with a sell off after the S&P showed signs of fatigue late Thursday. Plus, there was a second distribution day in volume. NASDAQ fell to test the fast and 50 day moving averages and held. Now, will be watching to see if the market holds Friday lows, perhaps consolidates and heads back up (phase bullish); or, gaps under Friday low in which case, there will be another washout of longs until the market begins to look oversold. With Biotech correcting, Retail, Transportation and Real Estate holding, we will look there first for confidence restored.
Earnings season kicks off on Monday with Alcoa (AA) first in line.

S&P 500 (SPY) Held 134.85 the low of the gap higher to the tick! Gap lower and looking at 134 then 133 next. Holds, over 135.90 and a move to 136.29, the gap from Thursday's low is likely first test.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Holding up well and far from its support area at 78.56 or the gap low from June 29th. Could be attracted to that low, but if not, over 80.85, a positive sign to start the week.

Dow (DIA) Range to watch 127.96 to 126.65.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) As mentioned above, held the fast moving average. If continues to hold should see some renewed buying. Otherwise, 62.20 next major support area

ETFs:

GLD Over 154 could see another attempt at higher prices. Otherwise, bear flag could be forming.

XLF (Financials) 14.40 support held marginally. Back above 14.55 looks better otherwise, will be cautious for the time being

IBB (Biotechnology) After an inside day, dropped with the market on Friday. A correction not a bad thing, unless it breaks 130.

SMH (Semiconductors) Not only filled the gap from 6/29, but also broke the 200 DMA again. Question now is will this be a third low higher than the last 2 swing lows?

XRT (Retail) Has room to 58.90 and will still look good

IYT (Transportation) Good sideways action for now

IYR (Real Estate) Did not end the week above 64.90, therefore could see more correction. Next best support 63.35 then 62.50

USO (US Oil Fund) Next support 30.95

OIH (Oil Services) 34.90 important support to hold and over the 50 DMA resistance a key to what happens if that does hold

XLE (Energy) Watch the 50 DMA which corresponds with Friday's low

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