Grandma or the Wolf? $SPY $QQQ $IWM

June 24, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Last week ended with low volume and inside days in the indexes. Also noteworthy is that all but the Russell 2000 closed inside and in the lower part of the substantial trading range from Thursday. Russell 2000 fared better, closing smack dab in the middle of Thursday's range and against the 50 DMA resistance. A higher open on Monday should be greeted with follow through. However, a lower open and/or a gap lower open could get ugly.

S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed strong warning phase. Held the 160 EMA and closed just beneath the fast moving average making this a great one to watch and follow the way Friday's range breaks.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Over the 10 and under the 50, to grandmother's house we go. That is complete nonsense, but the real sentiment is again, the indexes are a must to look at for next direction, even on your best looking stocks, should they fail the lows from Friday.

Dow (DIA) Teeny range, DOJI day. Of course there is some support from Thursday's low125.34, but if the Friday range breaks down, may not be enough to hold this up. On the other hand, over Friday's high, a relief.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Held the fast moving average and the floor trader midpoint. Strong warning phase confirms. A definite one to watch the way Friday's range breaks.

ETFs:

XLF (Financials) Like to see 14.24 hold up. Like to see 14.40 penetrated.

IBB (Biotechnology) Big day, new highs-nice to see.

SMH (Semiconductors) It better hold up here or trouble lurks under the 200 DMA

XRT (Retail) Range follower for sure

IYT (Transportation) This likes low oil prices and on Friday, oil climbed, this dropped beneath the 50 DMA-now pivotal at 91.73

IYR (Real Estate) U.S. New home sales start the week at 10 AM ET. Since the overhead 50 DMA is sloping up, still a chance for this to hold and run

USO (US Oil Fund) Another great example of looking at oversold RSIs, and catching a bounce. Inside day so will be interesting to see where it goes from here

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Back to watching 16.12

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