Granny Retail XRT-Follow the Breakout

August 27, 2024

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

In the Economic Modern Family, the most interesting sector is Retail XRT.

After the strong consumer confidence, the ETF looks like a move over July highs should be followed.

The “vanity” trade continues to sit in dormancy, but LLY is now producing a reduced cost diet/obesity drug.

This is the place to be (vanity trades) as 2024 ends and 2025 begins.

By Vanity I mean all things beauty, makeup, skincare, athletic wear; areas beat up that could come alive.

My guess is the move really begins in February 2025.

However, consumer discretionary XLY is slightly underperforming XRT and must also clear recent highs around 189.

Looking at the consumer discretionary ETF XLY, it is in a bullish phase and above the July 6-month calendar range low.

The Real Motion indicator tells us there is still a bearish divergence in momentum.

Leadership to the benchmark is unremarkable.

Should XRT clear 80 and this clear 190, the odds of a bigger more up are high.

Plus, this would be a boon to the rest of the Family as well.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 560 pivotal

Russell 2000 (IWM) 217-227 current range