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Happy New Year or Is It for The Economic Modern Family?

January 2, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday and has a very happy and successful New Year.

I spent time with my actual family and of course, watched my Economic Modern Family carefully.

If you have not seen my Outlook 2025, you should. I wrote it for myself, our clients and for you, my readers.

It will be extremely useful as I do what I do-combine fundamental, logical analysis, along with tips to execute trades with expert timing using technical analysis.

As far as the Family, we love the January Trend Trade, but we can also speculate based on the weekly charts what the Family is saying day one of 2025.

Granny Retail XRT remains a key player. While we would like to see XRT regain leadership, for now, the main thing is holding around $78, or where the massive consolidation breakout began last year.

Granddad Russell 2000 IWM, has a few key points of support to hold. $217 is one. The 50-week moving average at around $212.45 is another. If IWM has any legs at all, it must also clear back above $227.

Big Brother Biotechnology IBB starts the year with issues. However, if IBB can manage to hang on to $130 good. Over $135 even better.

Swinging over to Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE, the 200-week moving average (green line) at $58 if good, should offer support. Right now, a move back over $65 seems like a Herculean task.

Transportation IYT literally dances on the 50-WMA after making new all-time highs back in November. For you Dow theorists, IYT must do something better than this. Can it? Over $70 would be way better, but under $66, no fun.

Sister Semiconductors SMH has been the savior for years. Can she do it again? SMH has not traded under the 50-WMA since January 2023 when the fun began. And the January trend trade showed us the way! Now, we wait for her to do her magic and lead OR, a $35-40 drop from current levels is quite likely.

The weekly chart of BITO the ETF looks so much better than everyone else. While bitcoin fell to around $90,000, that it held and now trades back above $97,000 most likely means it will retest $108,000 and go higher still. BITO must hold the converging 50 and 200-WMAs.

To see more click on Outlook 2025.

We will continue to monitor The Modern Family of course. The calendar range will be huge!

In the meantime, we have risk parameters for our existing positions and are taking a patient stance on executing new trades.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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