September 4, 2018
By Mish Schneider
Over the long weekend, we did some research on what interesting series to watch, now that the days grow shorter.
Our go-to is typically Netflix, having enjoyed so many series like Peaky Blinders, Stranger Things, Fauda, and way more.
And yes, Ozark is back for a second season!
We learned from a friend of ours in the movie business that Netflix plans to invest $1 billion dollars more in creating original content.
Clearly, Netflix has already made some huge bets on their already ginormous basket of content.
This got us wondering.
It takes us a lot of burn time scrolling through the scores of original content offerings.
In the last month, we started watching a few new series, but then stopped since they were not nearly at Peaky Blinder’s level.
We even checked the “Best New Netflix Shows and Movies to Watch During September 2018.”
Besides American Horror Story: Cult, which interests us because they brought back Jessica Lange, we didn’t see much.
The movie releases are old. The series are eh.
So, as traders that like to use our consumer instinct, we checked out the chart.
Lo and behold, the world’s 10th-largest internet company by revenue, may be starting its own horror story series.
Starting with the double top it made in June and July, that neckline broke and gave patient short sellers a more-than-perfectly measured move lower.
Since then, on August 20th, it peaked lower and reversed.
Using about a 10% move as a target on reversals, once again, Netflix gave patient bulls a more-than-perfectly measured move higher.
The current rally has taken the price right into the neckline resistance at around 378-380.
Note the 50-day moving average in blue.
Today, the price broke below it for an unconfirmed warning phase.
That means it needs a second close beneath 366 to confirm.
Furthermore, the slope on the 50 daily moving average is negative. That means the warning phase could escalate to the downside.
Thinking again as a consumer, I will not unsubscribe from Netflix. Nor, will millions of others I imagine. In fact, Netflix is showing up in more countries globally.
However, there is a another content provider in town-YouTube. Their parent company is Google.
We watched a new series called, “Impulse,” and enjoyed it very much.
So, while Netflix remains supreme, the quality of the content is decaying. Meanwhile, the competition’s content is ripening.
Most importantly, the technicals precede the fundamentals.
Therefore, be on the lookout for a move lower, perhaps down to around $300 or near the 200-daily moving average.
S&P 500 (SPY) Still working a runaway gap, as long as it holds 287.75, good. Worst case you do not want to see-a gap from current levels to below 288.68 that does not get filled.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 171 big support held after the new all-time highs made Friday. Looks like its consolidating, so at this time, no reason to be negative
Dow (DIA) This did fill the gap so no more runaway. That makes 259 pivotal support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) With the closing price under 185.98, it is possible this has run its course long for the time being. 184 closest support number. Under there, could see 182 then 180.
KRE (Regional Banks) Like to see this continue to hold 62.45 and clear 64.00
SMH (Semiconductors) 110 resistance and 108 nearest support
IYT (Transportation) Broke the fast-moving average and is either going to hold and get back above 205.25, or fail 202 and then 200, which could mean a double top.
IBB (Biotechnology) 120 support to hold
XRT (Retail) Cleared over 52 and closed well.
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