February 5, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Song Lyric: By Train
From orange and red to green? Not quite my friends. The indices moved off the lows, but with neither enough oomph to clear the major moving averages or even the Floor Trader Pivots or volume, which was above average, but not nearly enough to reverse the plethora of distribution days over the last 2 weeks.
Furthermore, all the indices had inside days (when the trading range is within the trading range of the day prior.) Therefore, best we can say is that the stage is set to follow the break of the range one way or another with no hesitancy to sell should it be to the downside below Monday’s lows.
Once again, eyes peeled on the Dow, the weak sister who can regain her strength should she return above the 200 DMA and stay there.
S&P 500 (SPY) 176 would be a great place to start. Otherwise, under 173.93, hello 200 DMA
Russell 2000 (IWM) 110.16 the place here to clear otherwise, under 108.15 hello 200 DMA
Dow (DIA) 154.68 a great place to clear or we just merely confirmed the distribution phase with the first time since the end of 2012, this traded under the 200 DMA
Nasdaq (QQQ) Two points to clear really-first, 85.31. Then, 86.30 to really cheer. Otherwise, help 81.35-a bit higher than the 200 DMA if breaks Monday low
XLF (Financials) Next time under 20.40 not pretty
SMH (Semiconductors) Now this is getting my interest if it clears 40.45
IBB (Biotechnology) Although still bullish hasn’t proved that it didn’t peak out
XRT (Retail) Another inside day shaking confidence on this being a bottom
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and in better shape if holds
XHB (Homebuilders) Also interesting as it held the 200 DMA with an inside day.
GLD Slightly red and pretty lackluster-pun intended
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day above the 200 DMA making this yet another contender
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Inside day above the 200 DMA confirming the improved phase change
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