January 20, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
You can't keep a good market down! Some decent volume came in on Friday, partly because of options expiration and partly because the rally is starting to feel real, even to the doubters. Now, for those who subscribe to Murphy's Law, the masses talking up the market can be worrisome indeed; but, for the most part, a trend is one to be followed not faded. However, one must also note the risk on buying extended instruments and adjust expectations accordingly.
S&P 500 (SPY) Those lines in the sand like S and AR points merit respect. Friday, SPY touched S1, then ran to R1. Overall, we cleared 2012 high now making 148.11 the new pivotal area
Russell 2000 (IWM) The power of the small caps indeed. Perhaps resistance overhead by the Bollinger bands. 86.80 is its line in the sand support
Dow (DIA) 136.48 the 2012 high here. Inside day. IBM reports after the close on Tuesday-will be noteworthy.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 70.58 is the 2012 high-not even a factor yet. 67.34 was 2013 high which it cleared Thursday but then closed out the week below. I would tend to notch that up to AAPL, GOOG-both of which report this week. Until that dust settles, hard to predict.
ETFs:
GLD Touched the 50 DMA and retreated then ended the week with an inside day.
XLF (Financials) Ended the week holding the fast moving average with 17.20 the 2011 high and 20 the ultimate target. Now that many banks have reported, would like to see this find new ground from here
IBB (Biotechnology) A bit toppy now
SMH (Semiconductors) Bullish phase. Cleared 34.00 which held with an inside day. 2012 high 36.17
XRT (Retail) Made new highs on Friday. If cannot hold, a move to 64.00 would be a healthy correction. Overbought.
IYT (Transportation) 101.60 the 2011 high. Friday high 101.49. I am happy to see my first big target met and wouldn't mind some correction from here
IYR (Real Estate) Not as excited about this group as I was in 2012. The high from 2012 68.26, quite a distance from here.
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00 and if good, should clear. If not, still longer term trend is negative
OIH (Oil Services) Trend change last week to bullish.
XLE (Energy) 77.35 the 2012 high. Like to see some digestion since overbought now on daily RSI.
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Rallied over a 2-year base
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Looking for 60.00.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Tested the 50 DMA and retreated.
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