I'd Rather Throw Ya Than Know Ya

---

While the market traded in a range, I kept dreaming up ways to describe the range in the most entertaining yet informative ways possible. With 20 trading days in January now gone, the six month January Calendar Range kept a perimeter or boundary around the indices thwarting them from making new highs or lows, EXCEPT in the Dow.

When the songs, poems, literature, imagery and extreme sports analogies dried up, I turned on Friday to Boxing or maybe more apropos, the World Wrestling Federation. Crazy thing is that even though the Bears declared victory, the S&P 500 and Dow both had inside days (means uncertainty) last Friday, although the closes were near the lows with again, the Dow closing under the January Calendar Range low.

The Russell 2000s bucked big time (still the Year of the Horse) and dropped precipitously although remains above the January low at 114.20. NASDAQ tried hard to take the reins and with Apple, Netflix, Google and Amazon all super strong, almost succeeded yet could not cross the finish line.

Oil finally proved a blow off bottom could be in place although let’s give it one more day because it’s oil. If it really does stabilize watch how the market responds. Gold shot up as did the long bonds once again. I still maintain that oil is only one factor. Clearly the small caps and a blow off in interest rates with some firming action are 2 other important factors. Until we see a trifecta, going with the phases in the indices which are accelerating in warning.

Monday is Groundhog’s Day. Will the little bugger see his shadow? I’m guessing yes and he will retreat back into his burrow with winter weather persisting a while longer.

You see my friends, the imagery well has not dried up just yet, even if the market seems to be.

S&P 500 (SPY) Warning Phase Held January low at 198.55 with its inside day. Only a move over 202.70 can save it now

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed Warning Phase Or the Cybil of the market. 117.30 the 50 DMA if it has another personality swing. Underlying support 115.30 with 114.20 the January low

Dow (DIA) Warning Broke the Calendar Range and yet had an inside day so a gap lower would mean a quick visit to the 200 DMA which corresponds with the December low

Nasdaq (QQQ) Warning Phase Held the 100 DMA so under 100.97 can see quick trip to January low 99.36. Over 102.10 much better

XLF (Financials) Under the 200 DMA in an unconfirmed distribution phase. If this clears back over 23.16 and closes above convincingly, that’s one thing. Otherwise, this weakness is concerning

SMH (Semiconductors) 52.30 some support and January low 52.07. Otherwise, if clears 54.30 much better

IBB (Biotechnology) Back below the January Calendar Range high but still in good shape

XRT (Retail) In the range but now back under the 50 DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Held 81.89 which is the support to hold

ITB (US Home Construction) Inside day and hovering on the 50 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) Yes, it held the gap low and ran up into resistance at 123.30 which now must clear

USO (US Oil Fund) We can call this a low with huge volume of buying last Friday. Now has to hold 17.25

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Relative strength and now waiting for the 50 DMA to clear again

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Doesn’t stop but doesn’t help either

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.70 support

EWG (Germany): Looks the best of the Euro countries right now

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Looked so good before Friday-now on the 50 DMA which if any good at all, should hold