June 4, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The market does not want to quit, gaining back more than ½ of its losses from Friday. And I love that so many traders try to pigeon hole the market into clichés as a trading methodology: “Sell in May, June Swoon, Turnaround Tuesday”, which brings me to Tuesday. The small caps (Russell 2000) closed firmly on the fast moving average; not a big surprise given that it never violated the trading range from May 22nd high to May 23rd low, had a low volume correction last Friday and like all indexes, remains in a bull phase. Although the S&P 500 broke the boxed in range from 2 weeks ago, today, it closed back within it-often a very positive indicator. Nasdaq the same with one more extremely interesting feature-strong volume-in fact, an accumulation day which means that the volume exceeded the volume from the day prior with a close in the green. Furthermore, the volume was higher than the daily average volume. If you add all that up-does seem like Turnaround Tuesday could be just that.
S&P 500 (SPY) Comments over the weekend: “Could it comeback? Sure. But it will have to start with a close back over 164.00” And so it goes. Now, over 165 and new buying should come in. Under 163 and the 50 DMA is next
Russell 2000 (IWM) Also had an accumulation day in volume besides the “stronger than the other indexes” performance. Ultimately would have to clear 100, but fro now, holding around 97.50 would be positive.
Dow (DIA) Inside day-also interesting
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 73.70 big area to clear for more signs of strength and 72.75 the area to hold
ETFs:
GLD 137 resistance and 134 support with a nearly impossible read on the technicals other than the bear phase
XLF (Financials) Held the boxed in range and the 80 monthly moving average
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day and good performance.
XRT (Retail) 77.00 held for now but now has to clear 78.00 on a closing basis to return confidence
IYT (Transportation) Touched and held the 50 DMA. Now, like to see it return over 113.
IYR (Real Estate) First green close in 6 days. Still needs to clear 69.50 for a better confirmation the worst is over
USO (US Oil Fund) As I have been writing, yo-yo action.
OIH (Oil Services) Held the 50 DMA and like again over 43.80
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 66.16 is the low of the green bar from 5/28.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Better, but want to see it clear the fast moving average
XHB (Homebuilders) Narrowly escaped changing phases and impressively held the 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change to warning
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