July 14, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
In your face market correction! Only, I sort of wish the rally was not quite as robust as it was %age wise given the lack of volume that accompanied it (or didn't accompany it so to speak). Be that as it may, S&P 500 came back to nearly the high from July 10th at 136.23, which now becomes the next resistance level. SPY also made the biggest gain compared to NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and the DJ Industrial Averages. Perhaps you recall the video from Thursday night which featured SPY as the "go to" should the market rally with the added note to be wary of the 2-DAY RSI indication of oversold it ended Thursday's session with. Â Furthermore, I featured XLF, the ETF for the financial sector as the potential long term play above 14.50. That gained 2.8% on Friday with excellent volume.
S&P 500 (SPY) 135.50 now the fast moving average and closest support. 136.23 the high from 7/10 to clear before we are talking about a return to recent high 137.51. And, since back in an unconfirmed bullish phase, 133.60 the 50 DMA, key support. An accumulation in volume is needed for long term sustainability.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 80.00 is its next hurdle which then clears the fast moving average. 79.00, first area of support to hold. An accumulation in volume is needed for long term sustainability.
Dow (DIA) 128.14 the July 10th high to clear. Back in an unconfirmed bull phase provided it continues to hold 126.10. An accumulation in volume is needed for long term sustainability.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Back in an unconfirmed bull phase clearing the 50 DMA at 63.06. The 10 DMA overhead at 63.86 is next resistance. Some earnings coming out that will be important, but not for another week. That suggests that this will be more of a follower then a leader until those reports shed more light. An accumulation in volume is needed for long term sustainability.
ETFs:
GLD Meager rally in comparison with market which again, no surprise here since producer price index confirmed what we see in the charts-low inflation number for now-continue to look to sell rallies.
XLF (Financials) Ran right up to the trendline I featured in Thursday night's video.
IBB (Biotechnology) Friday high some resistance at the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors) Thursdays video pointed out that this held the last swing low from June 4th. Perhaps this can run back to 31.00, but if it falters from there, might be a place to short depending upon the rest of the market.
XRT (Retail) 58.65 the 50 DMA support, which like to see hold with a break of 59.50 a point to watch for more upside.
IYR (Real Estate) New high close-real estate never went red during last week's correction. Pay attention to signs like these.
USO (US Oil Fund) 32.95 the 50 DMA and moment of truth as to whether this is a great short opportunity.
XLE (Energy) 66.86 is a gap fill area from July 5th. If clears that this recovery phase could be real, otherwise, if market rolls over, this remains vulnerable.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Held 14.70. Low volume and low percentage gainer, which suggests market psychology has not yet switched to a bullish bias even with Friday' rally. A major clue to next direction.
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