July 22, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
And if that ain't the way of the market this year-get in, hit the 3-5 day move up or down, and get the hell out. Give back some of your hard earned dollars before heading back to a mainly cash position. If one can do that and stay one step ahead-that's as good as it gets. So, what now? Distribution day in volume after 2 accumulation days in S&P 500 and one has to say, correction in a weak bullish phase. Lots of earnings this week, so remaining relatively uncommitted for now as most conservative approach.
S&P 500 (SPY) 135.60 is the next area of support or where the fast moving average is. Since it gapped lower Friday, also watch for a move above 1137.21 for a resumption of the up move.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Considering this was the one to keep the bullish phase intact 2 weeks ago, it is also the first one last week to break the fast moving average. 77.59 last swing low corresponding with the 50 DMA. Let's see what happens there. A move back above 79.80 and a more roseate picture.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Never thought of 65.25 the high from 7/05 and last Thursday as a double top but it's possible. Now, that is the area to clear, otherwise, looking at 63.65 then 63.00 as next support.
ETFs:
GLD Reversed the trend of underperforming the SPY on Friday by significantly outperforming. That is how non directional things are now. 154.05 the 50 DMA as resistance. 2 closes above and phase goes more positive, otherwise, still in bear phase.
XLF (Financials) 14.25 support and through 14.80 back in business.
IBB (Biotechnology) If July closes out under 130, would see that as a key reversal to its beautiful uptrend
SMH (Semiconductors) Looking at 30.50 as this could not confirm a phase change to recovery and stays stealthily in a bear phase.
XRT (Retail) Couldn't hold 59.50 support, now pivotal and overall sloppy chart
IYT (Transportation) Thursday's hammer candle was a kiss of death as now the 200 DMA is staring this group down like the devil might have come out to play. Only a move back through 91.15 will improve this ominous looking chart
IYR (Real Estate) Over 65.00 I like it again, but unless that happens, has some ways to drop before it tests the 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.00 is a substantial swing area
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