Is the Consumer Sector Trying to Bottom?

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On April 28th, I sat down with Maggie Lake on her show, Maggie Lake Talking Markets. 

While we covered a lot of topics on my mind lately, the consumer is the ultimate test on the next market and economic direction. 

Remember, we look forward, not backwards. 

The consumer, as seen through the eyes of our Granny Retail XRT, is positive but not decisive. 

This daily chart shows why. 

While holding critical support levels, the 50-DMA (blue) eludes the price. 

XRT on leadership underperforms, which is critical. We must have the consumers on board. 

Real Motion is encouraging but has not yet shown impressive momentum. The red dots are close but need to clear the 50-DMA. 

As for the rest of the conversation, you can hear it here.

Some of my notes for the segment: 

Last time the gold to silver ratio peaked like it did on April 22 was October 2022. 

From then on 

1. Silver prices rallied 
2. The yields relaxed and TLTs rallied (after a long rate hike cycle and pause) 
3. SPY bottomed but took months to start rallying (big chop until Spring 2023 
4. Dollar topped 

Now in 2025 

Gold to silver ratio peaks on 4/22-since then 

1. Silver prices rallying 
2. Long bonds bottoming (after a pause this year, will Fed lower) 
3.  SPY may have bottomed but could chop around for months considering uncertainty 
4. Dollar broke a 6–8-year business cycle low and could trend lower 

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.  

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more. 

 

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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here  

MarketGauge Podcast Mish and Geoff talk energy trades 04-28-25 

Maggie Lake Talking Markets Is the bearish news behind us? Find out 04-28-25 

Yahoo Finance Mish explains how certain key ratios and indicators will tell us when and what to buy 04-25-25 

Business First AM Bonds, silver and S&P 500 have to prove themselves 04-25-25  

Pre Market Prep The Consumer WILL Show the Way 04-22-25 

 

Coming Up:  

April 29 89.9 BFM Malaysia 

May 1 F.O.R.E.X Dale Pinkert 

Weekly: Business First AM  

 

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) 560 big area to clear and 535 to hold  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 support-200 resistance    

Dow (DIA) 400 support  

Nasdaq (QQQ) 460 support 480 resistance 

Regional banks (KRE) 50 support 

Semiconductors (SMH) 200 support 230 resistance  

Transportation (IYT) 60 key area  

Biotechnology (IBB) 120 near-term support 

Retail (XRT) 64 key to hold. 69 resistance 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 89k support 95k pivotal 110 resistance