It's All GREK To Me!

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Certain things about the 2015 market make perfect sense to me. Like why watching the Retail sector is a solid way to gauge the sentiment of the economy. Or, why following the Russell 2000 or small caps sheds further light on how another driver of the US economy, small businesses, are faring.

I can wrap my head around the Federal Reserve and the war within that has to be raging between Yellen and her team on raising the interest rates, when and by how much.

What we all seem to be grappling with though, is the Greece situation, which has been going on since 2009 when the sovereign debt crisis developed among investors concerning Greece’s ability to meet it debt obligations.

Therefore, for consistency’s sake, I am adding GREK, the Global X FTSE Greece ETF, to the Modern Family as the obnoxious cousin by marriage (like Eddie in National Lampoon’s Vacation), who is always broke and pawns off the cranky Aunt Edna and her mean dog Dinky on the Family.

Speaking of the Modern Family

The Russell 2000s are holding the 50 DMA therefore remain best reason to stay positive. Retail is close enough to the 50 DMA to think any bit of good news will send that over it. Regional Banks are holding for the possibility of higher interest rates. Transportation, although weaker than everyone else, are above the recent lows. Semiconductors and Biotechnology are doing okay, just waiting for signs from the others before attracting new speculators.

Cousin GREK in the Lampoon’s Christmas sequel, becomes an unlikely hero, forcibly securing a Christmas bonus for the Family that had been scrapped earlier by Clark’s (Russell 2000s) boss.

Maybe, just maybe, with the optimism that remains in the IWM so close to the highs, we can see the rest of the market, along with Greece, looking at the sky, happily smiling toward the stars and saying, “I did it!”

S&P 500 (SPY) Confirmed warning phase. If history repeats itself, at the lower end of the trading range, a bounce is possible

Russell 2000 (IWM) Held where it needed to so not bearish yet

Dow (DIA) Confirmed warning phase. Over 178.72 will be good as it is on the lower end of its trading range

Nasdaq (QQQ) Failed the 50, held the 100 DMA making the 50 DMA resistance unless it can clear it

XLF (Financials) 24.85 pivotal area

KRE (Regional Banks) Like this still

SMH (Semiconductors) Has to clear 58.00 and hold 56.25

IYT (Transportation) Held 150-best I can write for now

IBB (Biotechnology) Sideways so not in bad shape

XRT (Retail) Has to close over 100 or under 96.00 to be a game changer

GLD (Gold Trust) A close over 114 will get us interested

USO (US Oil Fund) 20.20 resistance and the 50 DMA 19.89 support

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Like even more over 43.00

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day-not surprising ahead of the Fed

GREK (Greece) If opens over 11.33 a good sign