July 4, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Happy 4th of July Everyone!
Half a day on Wednesday with firming action and no real change to the phases in any of the indexes or sectors. Friday, especially if follows the direction established on Wednesday, should be decisive on whether or not the S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow can follow the Russell 2000 back into a bullish phase or not. Let’s put it this way, with the delicate situation in Egypt, the upcoming jobs report and some leading sectors already in a bullish phase (Retail, Biotechnology and Financials), the inflection point for the market is here.
S&P 500 (SPY)Under 160 that lower end of the range should be a fair target. Over the 50 DMA, would go with that as well
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in bullish phase and inside day. Looks pretty good
Dow (DIA) 148.25 to 150.50 the range this week so far-seems logical to follow that range break up or down
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)71.35-72.27 this week’s range so far-again seems logical to follow it up or down from here
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)19.20 is a key point here. 19.50 pivotal and 20.00 a great breakout
SMH (Semiconductors) Not only has to clear the 50 DMA, but fill the gap from June 19th. Meanwhile, 37.50 pivotal-still very optimistic here
XRT (Retail) Remains in bullish phase with inside day
IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And, the 50 DMA is the area to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Above the 50 DMA-holding the bullish phase
IYR (Real Estate)Figuring it out-over the 200 DMA good sign under Wednesday low, vulnerable
GLDHolding Monday’s gap low so far and hasn’t cleared the fast moving average-consider those prices the range to break either way
USO (US Oil Fund)Took out2013 high 35.50 with the gap higher. Running into resistance at 36.00
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Still friendly longer term.
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