It's Impossible To Suppose The Same Thing To Be And Not To Be

---

Aristotle-Principle of Non-Contradiction

Not so fast on that sacrificial lamb metaphor you might be thinking to yourselves. There’s a reason that lamb had its throat slit this week.

Not to be too macabre, (poetic license if you will), the Market action at the start of this year 5775, according to the Jewish calendar, was hardly filled with fruit and honey.

However, with both the Dow and NASDAQ ultimately defending the 50 DMA, once again we call on the laws of contrarian to say that perhaps, just perhaps, Thursday was another healthy flush to the lower end of the August range.

Be that as it may, we took profits using trailing stops in the bank stocks we owned and are gone, have a couple of safety plays on, otherwise, super tight stops using major moving averages as our line in the sand, with our major position-cash. By the way, in US dollars, that’s not too shabby right now!

Small caps held 110-case for range bound until that breaks. SPY went into an unconfirmed warning phase-needs another day of closing beneath the 50 DMA. QQQs and DIA could lead the way and bounce decidedly off the 50 DMA OR gap beneath thereby giving high probability to sealing the fate of the longest amount of time since the S&P 500 touched the 200 DMA (last time was November 2012).

S&P 500 (SPY) Now, the 50 DMA is at 197.80 and the price below. In order for the confirmation of the warning phase, has to close the week below.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Really likes 110 for now. If it breaks good chance this will see 105

Dow (DIA) The 50 DMA is 169.17. That means if holds and clears 170 good sign. Otherwise, has room to 164 area next

Nasdaq (QQQ) The 50 DMA is 97.83. 95.00 could be beckoning unless this clears and closes back over 98.05

XLF (Financials) Express train to the 50 DMA. 23.00 is the area now to hold

SMH (Semiconductors) On the 50 DMA at 50.53 and still in best shape since it held 9/16 low 50.62-fornow

IBB (Biotechnology) New high first thing then bang. But as with SMH, best place to look for strength

XRT (Retail) No surprise this is back in an unconfirmed warning phase

IYR (Real Estate) Support at 67.65 on monthly chart

GLD New reversal candle? Let’s say maybe

USO (US Oil Fund) Under 34.00 more downside expected

FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Major support right here on monthly moving average so worth watching

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs right back over the 50 DMA-I figured the rates have to stay low

UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.75 is resistance and tested early on today

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Held the July lows in spite of its drop