July 24, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Hardly the same drama as on May 22nd given the daily trading range or average daily volume, the S&P 500 did indeed signal a possible new reversal candle by the close of Tuesday’s session. Same with the Russell 2000s, but not the Dow. The possible indication is when an instrument opens on new (or at least 60-day highs) and then proceeds to close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range. All signals whether they are possible reversals, phase changes, etc.-need another day to confirm. The Dow did not fit that pattern making it a bit of an iconoclast compared to the other indices. NASDAQ broke the gap low from July 11th already confirming a reversal pattern from its new highs made on July 17th. Gold continues to rock and roll with an unconfirmed improved phase change to recovery. And the US dollar continued its decline holding onto the 200 DMA by the skin of its teeth.
S&P 500 (SPY)Confirmation would look like a move under 169.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Confirmation on reversal if breaks and stays below 104. Runaway gap low 101.94 and most critical underlying number to hold now
Dow (DIA)155.14 the May 22nd high to fail if topping out. Otherwise, remained the strongest one on Tuesday
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) AAPL at time of writing was up post earnings. As a big influence to this index, using same parameters 74.53 then 75 as range to break one way or another
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)Possible reversal candle that will require confirmation
SMH (Semiconductors) Indecisive here as it trades between the fast and the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) A channel has formed from the trading range over the last 9 days. Watch which way it breaks
IBB (Biotechnology) Unlike the indexes, this did have a more concerning reversal candle as the range was substantial and the volume over the daily average. Under the fast moving average, could signal the start of a bigger correction
IYR (Real Estate)Converging moving averages which would like to see hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day.
GLDLots of folks fooled by this unbelievable move off the lows-not us! A classic example of a reversal candle or the opposite of what could be developing in the indices
USO (US Oil Fund)Unless this clears 38.50, still topping action that needs confirmation
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Made a new 2013 high by one tick and closed lower.
UUP (Dollar Bull) The 200 DMA is 22.18-landed and closed there
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