July 4th: When Flies Die of Happiness $SPY $DIA $QQQ $IWM

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If the top of range in the S&P 500 this week is the 50 DMA, (162.50) then it stands to reason that 157.00-158.00 area should be the bottom of that range, provided that SPY does not gap above 50 DMA on the now infamous turnaround Tuesday. Only, not sure about this Tuesday given it can turnaround either way if range bound. And, with the July 4^th holiday even closer, unless something dramatic happens out of the political situation in Egypt (a definite wild card), no reason to think new highs or new lows. One noteworthy comment below-the Russell 2000s. Friday’s jobs report could be the game changer one way or another, especially given that the long bonds firmed somewhat and nearly put in an inside day (traded within the range of Friday but took out Friday’s high by 2 ticks closing just shy of it).

(SPY) Subscribers: Pivots Positive in all indexes

Russell 2000 (IWM) Best looking index for sure as it not only is holding the bullish phase, but filled the gap from June 19^th’s nasty candle and closed above. So, as much as the range bound theory is logical, this index could carry the rest of the market if stays firm

Dow (DIA) Could also be more range bound between 146.50 and 150, but not counting anything out.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Not only do SPY, DIA and QQQ have to clear the 50 DMA like their sister IWM did, but they also have to fill the gap from June 19^th just like their sister also did

ETFs:

XLF (Financials) 19.20 is a key point here. 19.50 pivotal and 20.00 a great breakout

SMH (Semiconductors) Like IWM, has to not only clear the 50 DMA, but fill the gap from June 19^th. Meanwhile, 37.50 pivotal

XRT (Retail) In good shape. 76.00 key support and if can fill and hold the gap over 77.85, very strong

IYT (Transportation) 108.20-108.65 an area to hold. And, the 50 DMA is the area to clear

IBB (Biotechnology) Big winner today. Has a gravestone doji candle to watch here making the 50 DMA important support

IYR (Real Estate) Here is why I go back and forth on the bullish bias. Even with some relief in rates, this remains under the 200 DMA and close red. Let’s see what happens at 65.00

GLD There is a gap to 122.88 to fill as first target. Then, if keeps going, still can visit 130. Otherwise, support at 119.00

USO (US Oil Fund) No more island top after today, that gap was filled. Of course, any Middle East disruptions and this could fly. In a bullish phase

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Watch TLT which still has a slingshot in play

UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.42 is place to hold.