Life Is Like Riding A Bicycle...

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To Keep your balance you must keeping moving. Albert Einstein

Staying with the The Glass Half Full/Half Empty cliché, the abundance crowd clearly won the battle but have they won the war?

We have reasons to be cheerful:

1. All indices back in unconfirmed bullish phases. S&P 500 and the Dow in particular, cleared the fast moving averages although have more resistance hence the battle not the war comment.

2. Financials back in unconfirmed bullish phase with the 3 top groups (Semis, Real Estate Trust and Healthcare/Biotech) strong like bull.

3. The interest rates firmed abating fear that the economy can only sustain with very low rates.

4. Oil maybe reaching the end of its bottomless pit with price stabilization now not such a bad thing.

5. Retail is on all-time highs.

We have reasons to be fearful:

1. Nasdaq closed above the 50 DMA marginally and with a declining slope on the fast moving average, a reversal and topping pattern from late 2014 and continuing pressure in other big names there: Google, Amazon, Netflix

2. AAPL (Apple) grazed the 50 DMA but failed to close above it.

3. The small caps (IWM) had a good day, but could not clear the fast moving average and still some distance from its topping candle from December 31st.

4. Rates may have firmed but only in a sort of quiet, orderly fashion and not with nearly the same volume we saw in long bonds on the way up.

5. China (close to closing on new multi-year weekly highs) is strong, which could steal some thunder from the US economy-note though-the US Dollar is strong which helps both countries.

One could say I have manipulated the 5 items on the half full, half empty scenario to keep perfectly balanced between the bull/bear case. Guilty as charged!

Until we get through a powerful calendar range in the SPY or 10 full trading days into the new year and see the range established; then once the range breaks one way or another, assess and follow the next intermediate direction, I hear noise. Okay, soothing noise like ocean waves, but noise nonetheless.

S&P 500 (SPY) 204 has to hold and over 205.50support even better then, 207 next area

Russell 2000 (IWM) 117 has to hold and 118.78 a pivotal chart point from mid-December has to clear

Dow (DIA) 176.36 has to hold and 180 has to clear

Nasdaq (QQQ) Dancing on the key pivot area of 103.10-.20

XLF (Financials) Better but needs to clear 24.70

KRE (Regional Banks) 39.25 key area to clear and now, 38.70 key to hold

SMH (Semiconductors) 54.38 is the 10 DMA to clear and has to hold Thursday low

IYT (Transportation) Still underneath the 50 DMA- weakness

IBB (Biotechnology) Not quite to the highs yet, but certainly a leading group

XRT (Retail) New high close

IYR (Real Estate) New highs again

ITB (US Home Construction) Closed over 26.00 if sustains is very positive

GLD (Gold Trust) 117 now an area to clear and under 114.65 trouble

USO (US Oil Fund) Another day of good volume and no real price change to note that means bottom yet-keep watching

XLE (Energy) Best shot of moving up in the oil, energy and gas group

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs started showing confirmation of a possible blow off top and now have to see 130 remain resistance and a drop and failure of 128

EEM (Emerging Markets) Possible bottoming action

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) CLOSED over 42.00 and reason to think much higher in store this year