February 6, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
It's been about 6 days of volatile but directionless action in the SPY, IWM and DIA. This hardly seems like much when compared to the 24 days of the sideways action in the Q's.
Jobless claims data comes out tomorrow morning and the market may pick a direction based on that, but I would not try to out-guess the markets next move. Let's just see which way it tells us it wants to go. Until it's obvious, play the ranges in the major indexes and use ETF's or stocks for trends.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day could lead to a decent move in either direction but don't be surprised if a breakout of the daily range fails. Subs: pivots are flat which also suggests a significant move is possible. S1 lines up with good support at 150.60
Russell 2000 (IWM) This is the only one to trade over the prior high and it even closed there. I'd like to see it lead if the market moves higher. Subs: Pivots positive so it could be a good RO Reversal long candidate
Dow (DIA) Some nice consolidation today sitting on the 10 DMA
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) another inside day and sideways action. The 24 day in this amazing consolidation.
GLD Still trapped between the 200 and 50 DMA. But now I think I'd look at a long position over 163.15
SLV (Silver) I'm looking for a 30 min O.R. breakout over 31.00. Until then I'm just watching.
XLF (Financials) The lower open today was an opportunity to buy against the 17.50 level. The breakout is over 17.66, but I don't want to pay up. Subs: Pivots are positive and S1 is around 17.50.
IBB (Biotechnology) If you are willing to play the bottom of the range, 146.00 is the support and it should not trade below 145.40 it is still strong. A breakout over 147.80 has good potential too after 3 days of consolidation.
SMH (Semiconductors): Inside day, but the markets did too, I'm waiting for a correction for now.
XRT (Retail) Today's low matched the 67.20 support exactly. It's still a good area to trade against.
IYT (Transportation) 103.50 is the key support and 104.65 is a big breakout.
IYR (Real Estate) Has a tight 5 day range that is right under the 10-DMA. It could have a nice move in either direction when it breaks out of the range.
USO (US Oil Fund) Impressive recovery from a big gap down. I'd wait for 35.15 to break to consider longs.
OIH (Oil Services) Today could have flushed the weak longs but let's see how it trades tomorrow.
XLE (Energy) 78.20 is the big number to break on the upside, then 78.60. Look for support at 77.35-00. Subs: watch this and OIH together, XLE had a nice OR Reversal as OIH broke down.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Trend is up but jobs data tomorrow could push it either way.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) nice move higher. Continues to be the leader in the energy space.
XHB (Homebuilders) Today's inside day only adds to yesterdays comments here...The low of the day is at the 20 DMA so this is a good place to watch for a break in either direction with the upside level to break being. The next level lower is the 28.00 level. There's a fair amount of resistance at today's highs of 28.82.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: