April 9, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Among the throngs of headlines on X, this one came out today
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP JUST SAID: - ANNOUNCED THE TARIFF PAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE GETTING AFRAID - REVERSED TARIFFS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, NOTHING IS OVER YET
Earlier today, Trump said,
Those who follow me regularly know that I have ranted about taking Trump and his right-hand men at face value.
Clearly, the market did after he first foreshadowed the rally and then announced the 9-day moratorium on tariffs.
Later, he announced that
“I WAS WATCHING BOND MARKETS; BOND MARKET NOW IS BEAUTIFUL”
That took me right to the chart of TLT, which also made a spectacular turnaround.
The chart shows a classic reversal pattern. New 60+ day low, and a close near the top 25% of the intraday trading range.
It also cleared back over the January 6-month calendar range high.
While SPY was well underperforming the long bonds, today, the long bonds took a backseat to SPY.
The Real Motion indicator is flatlining but does not show anything significant in the way of divergence.
Volume, not shown, indicates a flush to the downside.
Now, the price must confirm the reversal.
That means that Thursday, TLT must close above today’s high or 88.76.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Kitco News Why wait on gold and silver right now 04-08-25
Fox Business with Charles Payne Strategies During a Market Meltdown 04-04-25
Business First AM Bonds have yet to prove as a safe haven 04-03-25
Real Vision with Ash Bennington Subscribers only 04-02-25
David Keller Market Misbehavior Mish Schneider on Macro Themes, Silver Versus Gold, and the Economic Modern Family 04-01-25
Podcast Geoff and Mish cover the importance of the monthly chart timeframe 03-31-25
Coming Up:
April 10 NYSE
April 10 Schwab Network
April 10 BFM radio Maylasia
April 11 BNN Bloomberg
April 11 STN Joel Elconin
April 23 The Street.com
April 28 Maggie Lake
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 550 next hurdle
Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 support 192 resistance
Dow (DIA) 395 support 410 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 440 now support
Regional banks (KRE) 50 support 54 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 165 is huge to hold
Transportation (IYT) Reversal and now must get back over 63-64
Biotechnology (IBB) 115 back to support
Retail (XRT) Nice reversal, 72-73 next to clear
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