December 16, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The week ended with devastating news and our hearts and prayers go out to the families in Connecticut. The week also ended with no resolution to avert a fiscal cliff which was reflected in the 2-day correction. S&P 500 held onto its bullish phase if only marginally as did the DOW. The Russell 2000 remains in the best shape with an inside day. NASDAQ followed through on its breakdown after a confirmed bear phase, but landed on some support from early December levels. Looking to follow strength rather than buy weakness as the week begins.
S&P 500 (SPY) 141.80 is the 50 DMA which is sloping down. A break under and will be harder to stay positive. But, an open over Friday's high and we could see renewed buying
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day. A range break down will bring it to the 50 DMA and up, possibly to a move to 86.00
Dow (DIA) A hold of Friday low and a much better start to the week.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Confirmed bear phase. Last Death cross was in August 2011. Afterwards, it chopped around until December 2011 when the phase improved. So, if this is a mirror image, then one might assume that how it looks here in December 2012 does not bode well for the start of 2013.
ETFs:
GLD Inside day. Really, not much to say
SLV Not looking too good right now-the 200 DMA could be calling
XLF (Financials) 15.92 key support. Then, the 50 DMA becomes critical or a move back over 16.08 keeps picture good
IBB (Biotechnology) 136.50 is key support
SMH (Semiconductors) Dropped to the 200 DMA
XRT (Retail) See the 200 DMA and what could be a make it or break it as we end this year
IYR (Real Estate) On the 50 DMA and another sector beginning to erode unless it runs from here
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Under 31.00 and a leg down is very likely
OIH (Oil Services) Great short which we took profits on and now oversold
XLE (Energy) Confirmed strong warning phase with yet another reason market could be vulnerable.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Could not confirm the recovery phase going back to unconfirmed bear phase.
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