December 26, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
After Monday's inside day, the follow through in the indexes was to the downside. However, S&P 500 managed to hold onto the 50 DMA as did the Dow. The Russell 2000 held last Friday's low but broke the fast moving average and has a long way down to the 50 DMA if it cannot hold here. NASDAQ is approaching oversold, and managed to hang onto some support. Bottom line is money is not on the short side, but, not necessarily the buy side either until the market proves it can hang on here and firm up over last Friday's highs. As far as the fiscal cliff, I am going to guess they vote to postpone the deadline by a month, leaving us traders to fend for ourselves.
S&P 500 (SPY) If we cannot clear 143, then 140 could be next place to look for support.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 65.30 is the number to cross if there is anything left to the market as we close out the year. Then of course, the 200 DMA is the next area to penetrate. Downside, 64.25 is next area of support to hold then there is a gap to 64.02.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held Friday's low barely with a bearish engulfing pattern. Then, a long way down to the 50 DMA, 81.92 if cannot get back above 84.00
Dow (DIA) 130 and the 200 DMA not so far away. Held onto the 50
ETFs:
UUP 21.70 should hold in UUP as today we began a long position we will add to over 21.80
GLD Could not make it through the 200 DMA.
XLF (Financials) Still in the best shape. Has to hold here 16.29. If can clear 16.44 would not be afraid
IBB (Biotechnology) Oversold and perhaps can hold here and 136.80 to look better
SMH (Semiconductors) Looking for the 50 DMA to hold
XRT (Retail) Landed on the 200 DMA. Has to do some work here to prove it can start 2013 looking ok. Otherwise, not a great sign if consumer confidence weakens
IYT (Transportation) Any dip to around 92.00 would be worth buying
IYR (Real Estate) To keep this going into 2013, some fresh news has to come out. The housing market has bottomed was in the market all year and now it needs a fresh boost or could sell off
XLE (Energy) 71.00 is key support with 72.20 now the resistance to clear or the 200 DMA will be next
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 61.88 is where the last rally began from. Now, should act as support
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