August 21, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY All eyes will be on 110.27 the week ending 8/12's low tick. And it seems pretty safe to say we will get there. We are officially oversold on the weekly chart, but not the daily. Saw some tweets on Friday's inverse hammer candle. True, but unless it gaps higher-like way higher-over 116.65-Thursday's high, not putting much credence into that. Nothing goes down forever and we know rallies in bear markets can be vicious, but as of yet, see no signs of a blow off dump. Volume is one key indication as in "need it big" on the upside.
DIA 200 weekly moving average at 107.04. Oversold on weekly, not daily. Over 111.28 would be only reason to stop selling rallies.
QQQ Still lots of room to the 200 weekly moving average below. 49.93 the low from the week ending 8/12. Not even remotely interesting for a buy unless it gets back over 52.40.
IWM Broke and closed under the 200 weekly moving average at 65.56. Oversold on the weekly chart, not the daily. 63.76 recent low-still a bit away.
ETFs:
GLD See no signs yet of a top. Most recent long entry was at 170.75.
SLV Friday saw the silver lining. Made its move closing the highest since April. 45-46 next target. 41.00 should now hold.
The ultrashorts SKF FAZ SDS TWM QID -buying dips and Opening Range reversals the way to go.
EWZ If opens under 60.80 would look to short.
IYR Unless it crosses over 54.50, would look to sell rallies. The 200 weekly moving average is 51.06.
USO** A couple of oil stocks did well on Friday-COP for one with a big after market rally over the Friday's high 64.94. The ETF is good to watch since closed higher on Friday.
TLT Inside day and low volume. Under 110.23 could see some more selling. Would take that more as a relief of overbought conditions rather than a sign the market can have a sustainable rally for now.
UUP Possible double bottom at 20.84. A move over 21.25 will confirm.
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