March 14, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Melt up today! A day when the 2% move up in the indexes comes on the heels of FED's encouragement concerning the US economy. But, did we really need their seal of approval to see what has been going on since 2012 began? After all, since the year began, it appeared obvious that rates could rise, commodities would flatten and Financials would soar after 5 years under pressure.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Where will this rally stop? Instead of concerning yourself with that, instead go with the flow and let the market tell you when-past dailies have explained factors that go into assessing a top. Of course, astute traders will be on the lookout for that. For now, we have been enjoying the ride.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 seems like a reasonable target. Would not be surprised to see some early follow through for those who are finally convinced to buy. And would hope to see some digestion to work off the exuberance.
The Dow (DIA) 134-135 reasonable target
Russell 2000 (IWM) 83.31 last swing high
ETFs:
GLD We have made money both long and short this year. Now, back in an unconfirmed and weak distribution phase. At this point, unless it works its way back over the 200 DMA and closes there, bias is back to negative.
XLF (Financials) Nobody who reads this daily should be surprised by today's rally in this group. Maybe only surprised at how well technical analysis works. If you needed confirmation of the 5 year trend reversal, guess what?
IBB (Biotechnology) Has room to recent highs.
SMH (Semiconductors) Back over the 10 DMA and room to the recent highs. Will be curious to see how this and biotechnology respond in light of their recent lag to the overall market.
IYT (Transportation) A weak warning phase is one you do not short, but wait for the reversal sign to buy. Today was it. Back over the 50 DMA and needs another day to confirm it back to the bullish phase.
IYR (Real Estate) Took out the last swing high and closed beneath. Doesn't mean much yet; but could if fails today's low. Otherwise, could see move to 63.00-64.00 next.
XRT (Retail) Followed through from the inside day. But not as exciting here and does not have to be since this has led the rally since December.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Could not convincingly clear the 10 DMA and in fact, closed beneath. If fails this week's low, looking at last week's low 39.91.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Finally, after months of bottom picking, this made its move today. 20.15 high December 1st. Next point to watch.
UNG Made a new low then reversed closing on the high.
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