Middle of Uncertainty $SPY $QQQ $IWM

February 20, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Leading the market analysis with AAPL once again. The giant neither confirmed a possible reversal from last week's blow off run nor negated it, closing right in the middle of uncertainty.
NASDAQ (QQQ) closed with an inside day-indecisive. S&P 500 (SPY) closed just shy of the week of April 29th 2011's high close -136.43. Russells 2000 (IWM) after its startling comeback last Thursday, closed unchanged on Friday. Some candlestick pattern scholars look at this as a potential reversal of the current trend (Bullish). Potential, in that there needs to be at least 1-2 days of more evidence that the bears are back in control. As we enter the new week, there are signs of exhaustion in many sectors, while others look as though they are about to kick into gear. Ever since Operation Twist, been watching for shifts in the "classic" relationships.

ETFs:

GLD Still a possible contender long, especially if the Middle East continues to broil.

XLF (Financials) 14.86 high of recent move and the 200 weekly moving average looms at 14.89. Exciting.

IBB (Biotechnology) Broke the 10 DMA and under 118 showing real signs of fatigue.

SMH (Semiconductors) Could be troublesome as it made new multi-month highs and closed on the intraday lows.

IYT (Transportation) Got hammered by news of deal between UPS and British firm TNT. But, with good pivot lineup, would still follow it above 94.30 and risk a full ATR to see what it's got.

IYR ChartIYR* (Real Estate) Have not written about this group in a while. Have been friendly since it crossed the 200 DMA a month ago. Now, after getting to 62.04 and backing off, it has found support at 60.00 and quite possibly ready for another stab at 2011 high 63.00 and beyond.

USO (United States Oil Fund) Got to 39.75, first target. Getting a tad overbought, so trail up those stops on the balance.

MOO (Market Vectors-Agribusiness) Watch this to clear recent highs 53.45. DOJI day and hammer candle on Friday. Like to see 52.70 hold.

TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Long over 19.00 but needs to get back over 19.90 to see a convincing rate reversal.

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