March 25, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Note: Today's Mish's Daily was prepared by Geoff Bysshe. Mish will be back to prepare it on Tuesday evening.
The market got off to a positive start but fell back toward the lower end of its two week range. With holidays and the beginning and end of the week, the two week consolidation's high and low are more important to watch than the intra-day gyrations between these levels.
Additionally, if the market is truly going to trend lower in a big way it is likely that the TLT will breakout above its high from last week convincingly.
S&P 500 (SPY) Last week's low, 153.59 and today's high, 156.27 are the precise key level to break now, but for range trading against market chop look for support and resistance in the areas of 154 and 156.
Russell 2000 (IWM) The last four days have been within last Tuesday's range. If the trend is real this will likely lead.
Dow (DIA) could be the tightest of range of the 4 indexes and would be a good candidate to trade on an upside breakout.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.50 (the 50 DMA) is key to hold and 69.00 the area to break above
ETFs:
GLD pulled back to test the 10 DMA today and bounced. Today's range could define the inflection points for the next multi-day move up or down.
XLF (Financials) 18.00 is the key level to hold. Breaking today's high puts it over the 10 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) If market rallies this could be a good long play.
SMH (Semiconductors) Marginal, unconfirmed bullish phase. I needs to clear 35.25 decisively. I should have good support at 34.50
XRT (Retail) Has been one of the strongest groups. It held PDL today an almost closed up on the day. Look for support at 70 and a breakout out over 70.50.
IYT (Transportation) Had a wide range day that echoed Thursday's action. Until it breaks today's high area at 111. I'll wait for more of a rest from this group.
IYR (Real Estate) 68.50 to 69.30 is the range to break.
USO (US Oil Fund) Strong move higher but pulled back off its high of the day near the 50 DMA. One of the few markets that held over the PDH.
OIH (Oil Services) Took out 4 days of tight consolidation, but stopped dead at the 10 DMA and fell back into the range. If it moves over 42.30 it may try to move up again, but a move lower that today's low would be quite bearish.
XLE (Energy) Still looking a bit unclear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) If it breaks below last week's 65.70 low then stocks are probably in trouble too.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Support around 60.00 with an nice daily retracement. In an up market this could be a good long.
XHB (Homebuilders) This has held up very well and remains above the 10 DMA.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
