April 13, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
For what it’s worth Mondays have been a high probability day for the Bulls for most of this year and today seemed to be following that trend in the morning. Unfortunately even IWM breaking its all-time high levels could not entice the DIA, QQQ, or SPY to continue higher. In fact, the divergence between the IWM’s Opening Range Breakout and other 3 markets was a very timely indication that the markets needed a rest after last week’s move up.
The intraday reversal would not be as concerning were it not for the fact that all four indexes are sitting at very significant resistance points. At times like this, when the markets have trended higher for at least several days, I like to look for the break of the prior day low as the first sign of potential weakness or change in the short term trend.
The SPY came pretty close to breaking its prior day low, but the others held firm. Regardless, if you look at the Little Big View basic sector summary you’ll find that only retail (XRT) and the Financials (XLF) closed up on the day. So it was a profit taking day across the board.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, Tuesdays have generally been weak this year. Let’s hope earning news can help buck that trend tomorrow.
S&P 500 (SPY) Rallied into resistance at 210.63 and then failed to hold 209.35 as support. 208 now strong support to hold at the 50 DMA Subscribers: Mixed Pivots, Positive in IWM and QQQ, Negative in DIA and SPY
Russell 2000 (IWM) Put in a new all-time high at 126.39 then sold off to close at the lows. 125.60 now support to hold.
Dow (DIA) Failed to hold over 180.16. Next key support is at 179.00 the 50 DMA and 181 is the point to clear.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Corrected like the rest of the market. Now needs to hold 107 and clear and close over 108.20
XLF (Financials) Cleared and held over key resistance at 24.30. Now 24.24 Key support.
KRE (Regional Banks) Reclaimed its 6 month calendar range high at 41.06 and cleared resistance at 41.20. Now needs to clear 41.62 and hold 41.06
SMH (Semiconductors) Held support at the 50 DMA. Now needs to hold and close over 55.82 and then 56.73 the next resistance.
IYT (Transportation) Needs to continue to hold at 155.65 the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Found resistance around 362. Now needs to clear 362.93 and then 363.63 to really get going.
XRT (Retail) Consolidating near the highs Needs to first clear 102.22 (Monday’s high) and then 102.50.
IYR (Real Estate) Needs to hold support at 76.30 area now, or else see a visit down to 75.75 the 200 DMA
ITB (US Home Construction) Held nicley at S1 today. Under 27.83 spells trouble.
GLD (Gold Trust) Gapped lower and then failed to reclaim the 50 DMA at 115.54 next support at 114.50 area
USO (US Oil Fund) After Friday’s inside day this gapped higher only to sell off and chop around holding PDH on the close
OIH (Oil Services) Chopped like USO. Now needs to hold at 35.51 and clear 37.00.
XLE (Energy) 78.70 support at the 10 DMA and over 81.00 looks great.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Somewhat range bound until it can clear 54.21
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Another all-time low close!
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Can’t be stopped! Or at least for now. Like to see what happens between 50 and 51.07 area
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Sandwiched between the 10 and 50 DMA’s
UUP (Dollar Bull) Digested with the rest of the market. As long as this can hold at 26.00 see a move higher still
EEM (Emerging Markets) Possible reversal candle, needs a second day to confirm
EWP (Spain) Found resistance at 35.40
EWW (Mexico) 58.61 next support
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) possible reversal candle, if confirms.
EWY (South Korea) Failed to hold the 200 DMA at 59.51 giving us an unconfirmed phase change back to recovery.
CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting
SGG (Sugar) 13.00 in cash is still the next place to clear
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