December 3, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Prepared by Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge, filling in for Mish until December 8th
Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best. I wish it was always this straight forward.Yesterday 3 of the 4 market ETFs (all but IWM) retraced to their 10 DMA and today they held up. The Q’s had and inside day which I see as consolidation, and the DIA and SPY bounced closing over their prior day’s high, which is bullish. The DIA actually put in a new closing high for the move.The IWM is weaker in the big picture, but in the context of the last several days it held its support and bounced with the other indexes.In conclusion, the major trend is up, the last one or two days (depending on the index) corrected against the trend, and today the market consolidated or resumed the uptrend. Don’t fight it. Follow strength.However, I still remain concerned about the market’s bearish condition in the new high / new low area. In fact, the last two days have seen more new 52 week lows than new highs in both NYSE and NASDAQ while the indexes sit one good day away from multi-year highs. This is very dangerous. For this reason any decline below Monday’s lows should be viewed as a dangerously bearish inflection point.Until then… It’s December. Happy Holiday’s for the bulls.
S&P 500 (SPY) A positive consolidation day back toward the highs Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 200 DMA with a nice correction back to the 10 DMADow (DIA) A new high closeNasdaq (QQQ) Inside day near the highsXLF (Financials) New high close holding the range of consolidationKRE (Regional Banks) Inside day accompanied by a phase change to accumulationSMH (Semiconductors) Holding strong but getting tired?IYT (Transportation) Held the support at 160.60 with an inside dayIBB (Biotechnology) A new high close but looking extendedXRT (Retail) Held support at 92.00 but still looking a little heavyIYR (Real Estate) Tested the support at 76 then rallied to resistance at 77.02ITB (US Home Construction) Inside day straddling the 10 DMA. Looks to be flaggingGLD (Gold Trust) Failed to confirm the phase change, gapped lower then had a tight range all dayGDX (Gold Miners) Remains in a bearish phase with an inside day under the 10 DMAUSO (US Oil Fund) Quiet. Needs to break its current range one way or the other!OIH (Oil Services) Still downXLE (Energy) Could this be the bottom?XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Quiet!UNG (US NatGas Fund) Continued to break down, next support at 19.68TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Gapped lower and held at the 10 DMAUUP (Dollar Bull) New multi-year high close
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