July 22, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
**Note: Today’s Evening watch was prepared by Jonathan Griffin Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research
Our Modern Family is more reliable than ever for relaying where the money is going and where it’s telling you it’s not going- Semi’s and Tech which got hit hard on Tuesday.
From this we gather that it is always best to watch the family rotation and stick to the members holding key levels.
So with that said, how did our Modern Family do on Wednesday?
Prodigal son Regional banks (KRE) rallied from Monday’s lower close for a close over 45.00 for the first time since June.
Granny Retail (XRT) gapped under the key support at the 50 DMA only to rally back for a close over 100.00 and thus holding the bullish phase.
Big brother Biotech (IBB) showed relative strength to the market. After a gap lower for the open, it rallied back from the lows . Doing his job of holding up the market when it needs him the most.
Transportation (IYT) tried yet again to clear resistance at the 50 DMA only to sell off from the open. Yet Trannies managed to hold key support near the 10 DMA implying that it wants to go higher yet.
Brother Semiconductors (SMH) on the other hand proved to be the weak link in the family today. With a gap to new 2015 lows and lots of chop intra-day it closed at the lowest level since November of 2014.
However with some strong earnings reports after hours in big tech names such as in Cirrus Logic (CRUS) +11% Fontinet (FTNT) +7.5% F5 Networks (FFIV) +6.7% and Sandisk (SNDK) +7% should help the weak sibling SMH and definitely goose rest the rest of family.
That just leaves Granddaddy Russel (IWM) who despite coming in lower under the 100 DMA managed to show the leadership we have come to expect by climbing back over Mondays lows and cleared the 100 DMA with gusto!
One last point of interest from Wednesday's session was the fact that Silver (SLV) managed to hold key support at 14.00. If we were to start to see a move out of the other commodities and metals one could expect SLV to handily outperform!
With that said we will have to wait and see what Thursday's session holds for our Modern Family and the rest of their brethren!
S&P 500 (SPY) Had a nice bounce from the open but could not close back over Monday’s low. This makes 210.39 a key level of support with 211.75 the first point of resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held 124.52 on the close but Still unable to clear the 50 DMA at 125.17.
Dow (DIA) Sitting now in a range between the 10 DMA at 179.25 and the 200 DMA at 177.23. No real concerns until this breaks the 200 DMA.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Held the runaway gap support at 112. Back over 112.65 would be a good start to Thursday’s session.
XLF (Financials) Ignored the rest of the market and climbed to new 2015 highs. Good support around 25.40.
KRE (Regional Banks) Closed over 45.00, now needs to clear resistance at 45.29. Support at 43.67 the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 49.36 is now the nearest monthly support.
IYT (Transportation) Over 149.90 would clear the 50 DMA and should hold around 147
IBB (Biotechnology) Held key support at 387.85 the 10 DMA. Over 400.79 and we have new all time highs!
XRT (Retail) Tested and held the 50 DMA with support down to 98.00
IYR (Real Estate) With a sloppy chart like better if breaks above 75
GLD (Gold Trust) Another new low for the year, yet a gap over 105.09 and we could see an island bottom.
SLV (Silver) Yet again managed to hold key support at 14.00.
USO (US Oil Fund) 15.60 is the 2015 low
OIH (Oil Services) Broke long term support intra-day yet tried to climb back and hold.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Ugly!
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Looks better than most with a move over 14.00 good
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed phase change to recovery. Now needs to hold 118.45
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day with 25.42 a support area
EWP (Spain) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery
EWG (Germany) Held the 200 DMA at 28.59
BAL (Cotton) 42.72 key support
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