July 23, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
**Note: Today’s Evening watch was prepared by Jonathan Griffin Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research
Thursdays Session brought us more concerns as to the health of the overall market. With new highs on Monday in the Nasdaq and the S&P testing the high end of its 2015 range, the Selling action we have seen since only make sense.
Now if you are a member of our Nasdaq All Stars model than you have had a great month with earnings in Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) boosting the QQQ’s. However if you weren’t long before earnings then it’s too late to chase strength. As we saw on Thursday, even the big boys are subject to the whims of the market.
Our Modern Family had a rough day on Thursday as well. With low commodity prices and talks of China raising rates driving fear into the markets, we start to see a battle weary family lose ground.
Granddaddy Russel’s (IWM) tried again and failed at taking out the 50 DMA and subsequently failed to hold the 100 DMA. If IWM can’t hold here we may be looking at a move down to 120.00.
Prodigal son Regional Banks (KRE) failed to move over key resistance around 45.00 and failed the 10 DMA. However this has mostly held Wednesday’s range we could simply be seeing some consolidation here until the market decides which way to go.
Sibling Transportation (IYT) again tried and failed to clear its 50 DMA for the 5th time since breaking under it in March 2015. However IYT is still holding monthly support around 144.88.
Brother Semiconductor’s (SMH) managed to help hold up the family. After leading the weakness in the family for over a month. During Wednesday’s session and new 2015 lows we had a nice bounce up to the 10 DMA before retreating under Wednesday’s high for the close.
Granny Retail (XRT) showed her weariness by failing the 50 and 100 DMA. Leaving worries as to whether or not she will hold the recent low of 97.52.
Big brother Biotech (IBB) took today to rest but held right where it needed too! Now we will look to this sibling to do the big brother’s job of holding up the family when they need him most!
One last key note to watch will be the 6 month calendar ranges that were put in on July 15. Currently QQQ is the only index that is holding the calendar range high, with SPY IWM and DIA all trading inside of the range. Going into the close of the week it will be interesting to see where they all land!
S&P 500 (SPY) Failed the 50 DMA at 210.37 making the 100 DMA at 209.61 key support to hold.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed under the 100 DMA and looking rather weak here. 121.28 is now support to hold.
Dow (DIA) Failed the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed distribution Phase. 177.27 is the 200 DMA to clear now.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Closed the runaway gap. 111.61 now support at the 10 DMA
XLF (Financials) Bearish engulfing pattern here. With 25.25 support from the gap on July 15th.
KRE (Regional Banks) Failed to hold 45.00 on a closing basis. 43.78 now support at the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 49.39 is the nearest monthly support and 53.07 is resistance at the 10 DMA.
IYT (Transportation) Could not hold over 147 but still holding monthly support at 144.88.
IBB (Biotechnology) Still looking at the 10 DMA as support now at 390.55.
XRT (Retail) Failed the 50 DMA at 99.50 making 97.52 the next support.
IYR (Real Estate) Back under the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bearish phase.
XHB (US HomeBuilders) Held nicely at the 10 DMA.
GLD (Gold Trust) Held Wednesday’s low at 104.18.
SLV (Silver) Tested levels under 14.00 for the first time but held on a closing basis.
USO (US Oil Fund) 15.60 is the 2015 low and it looks like we may visit!
OIH (Oil Services) Potential reversal pattern in the works if we see confirmation on Friday.
XLE (Energy) Ouch!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Very Ugly!
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Failed the 10, 50 and 100 DMA.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 33.62 is the place thios must hold!
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Strong move up here. 122.00 will be the next resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.38 now support to hold
EWP (Spain) Back to Bearish.
CORN (Corn) Inside day.
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