July 21, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I am heading to the Big Apple just as the other big AAPL posts earnings.
One has absolutely nothing to do with the other except for attitude adjustments as I take a mini break.
However, I did look up the derivative of “The Big Apple” and its origins in NYC. Jazz musicians in the 1930’s used the term to describe a gig in the most coveted venue of all, Manhattan. The term lost glitter until the 1970’s when NY began a marketing campaign resurrecting the term.
AAPL, as a stock, has been the most coveted shares to hold by investors rising in valuation above the S&P 500 beginning in 2012.
Post earnings that sentiment shifted as at time of writing the stock dropped around 7%. I hope for shareholders and the market’s sake that it doesn’t take 40 years for AAPL to resurrect!
Although I will be checked out until next Monday, current question is, How will the market behave over the next few days given the striking divergences?
NASDAQ traded a narrow range day inside the Trading Range of Monday. The runaway gap, in its third day appears good provided it holds above 112. The digestion day did alleviate overbought conditions as well.
The Dow took it on the chin. 18,000 broke as Tuesday’s gremlin on the side of the bus (Bart Simpson’s vision) came in the form of IBM.
Biotechnology slipped a bit from the highs, but without much fanfare meaning, no scary reversal patterns evident.
In the world of commodities, most notable is the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH). After making triple bottoms on the daily chart, it closed well enough to consider a reversal bottom is now in place.
Looking with Shepherdess devotion at my Modern Family, (IWM, IYT, XRT, KRE, IBB, SMH), Semiconductors still worrisome as the closest one to the low of the new July 6-month Calendar Range.
Transportation has a better chart position relative to Semi’s, but remains in a bearish phase and with market pressure, eludes its 6-month range high.
Regional Banks tried 45.00 but with rates easing some, ran out of steam.
Retail, unless makes a good comeback over 100.00, under 98, if looking for a bear signal, is my line in the sand.
Russell 2000, Granddad, joined the Dow into an unconfirmed warning phase.
Overall, the action appears more “noisy” than fearful given the quintessential fear index, (The VIX), barely budged.
As many wait for the other shoe to drop, perhaps waiting or no action is the best news-to repeat Tom Petty’s diddy-The Weigh-Eigh-Ting Is The Hardest Part!
See you Monday-trade well!
S&P 500 (SPY) It looks as if it saw some wolves retreating from the trading range highs. Good news is it did so on below average volume.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held 124.48 but broke the 50 DMA. Essentially there is room to 121.24, but what a mess it will leave if it tests there
Dow (DIA) 177.20 is the 200 DMA and below that the July low. That gives this room as well without a panic
Nasdaq (QQQ) 112 is the runaway gap support-if this is to hold that gap
XLF (Financials) Good news is this should not be impacted by AAPL and can help stabilize the market
KRE (Regional Banks) 45.00 next resistance to clear on a closing basis with support at 43.67 the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) This is already weak with 52.00 July low support
IYT (Transportation) Over 150.10 would be impressive and should hold around 147
IBB (Biotechnology) Rest
XRT (Retail) Held the 50 DMA with support down to 98.00
IYR (Real Estate) With a sloppy chart like better if breaks above 75
GLD (Gold Trust) Another new low for the year
SLV (Silver) Inside day above 14.02-over 14.50 interesting, below 14.02 ouch
GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day but not impressive at all unless it takes out 14.77 on a closing basis
USO (US Oil Fund) 15.60 is the 2015 low
OIH (Oil Services) Closed right on the point to think a bottom is in place-conservatively, it has to really hold again on Wednesday
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Big volume at these low levels
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Looks better than most with a move over 14.00 good
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery-dancing around that 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Gave back some with 25.40 a support area
EEM (Emerging Markets) 39.00 pivotal
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