Moving Average Bait and Switch $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

November 27, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

With a lot of anxiety lurking, from fiscal cliffs to European concerns, market held its own with both S&P 500 and DOW putting in inside days. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fared better, both ending above Friday's high. Noteworthy is that IWM ran above the 200 DMA, SPY stayed there with DIA and QQQ the hold outs.

S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day filling the gap left on the open with a clear plan to trade in the direction the way today's range breaks.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 6 days up in a row with a close above the 200 DMA 80.50 putting this into an unconfirmed warning phase. If that level holds, next stop is 81.10.

Dow (DIA) Inside day, shy of the 200 DMA making that level ever so important especially since it is back into an unconfirmed distribution phase.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The 200 DMA is 65.45. if 65.00 holds, good chance this will clear the 200. Otherwise, a break of 65.10 and we are back looking at Friday lows.

ETFs:

GLD Inside and narrow range day with 169 key support at the 50 DMA

SLV Confirmed bullish phase making the 50 DMA support 32.25 and 34 the next objective.

XLF (Financials) Back in an unconfirmed warning phase after registering a bullish one Friday. Filled the gap it left from Friday's open. Watch for the 50 DMA to clear. Next Gap to fill above at 16.01

IBB (Biotechnology) the 50 DMA is overhead and possibly inviting. Otherwise, has room down to the fast moving average

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed over the 50 and has to stay there for the fun to continue.

XRT (Retail) The holiday shopping was clearly already in this ETF before today.

IYR (Real Estate) Cleared the 200 DMA for a confirmed phase change. 63.25 has to hold.

XLE (Energy) 71.05 now has to clear. The 200 DMA has to hold

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) If cannot clear 60.92, the gap, reason for concern in the overall market. 59.85 has to hold.

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