January 17, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Although I always get a little antsy when the indexes take out key resistance points then close below them after a strong up day, I also know that a move in the direction of the trend, is a good thing. I also know that the nature of this market has been sector rotation for quite some time. Like musical chairs, when the music stops, you want to be in a chair and not standing up sans seat. Furthermore, a professional portfolio is diversified enough that the ebb and flow of sector rotation keeps you solvent. For example, Transportation has been a hot sector since early December and I made no bones about how much I loved it. Then, at the same time I began to point out Semiconductors. Technology (including Biotechnology), which was hot in 2012, has cooled. And so forth and so on.
S&P 500 (SPY) 148.11 was last swing and 2012 high. Today, it ran through it, closed below. Concerned? Only if 146.20 gets violated.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Small caps have led-still do and not overbought. Not seeing any concerns here
Dow (DIA) 136.48 the 2012 high here. Also not overbought
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 70.58 is the 2012 high-not even a factor yet. 67.34 was 2013 high which it cleared today then closed above. I would tend to notch that up to AAPL, GOOG-both of which report next week. Until that dust settles, hard to predict.
ETFs:
GLD Touched the 50 DMA and retreated.
XLF (Financials) Still holding the fast moving average with 17.20 the 2011 high and 20 the ultimate target.
IBB (Biotechnology) A bit toppy now
SMH (Semiconductors) Bullish phase. Cleared 34.00 which now should hold. Then, 2012 high 36.17
XRT (Retail) 65.47 the 2012 high. Today got real close. Now that it is overbought, even a move to 64.00 would be a healthy correction to see if this can power through those highs
IYT (Transportation) 101.60 the 2011 high. Today's high 101.34. I am happy to see my first big target met and wouldn't mind some correction from here
IYR (Real Estate) Not as excited about this group as I was in 2012.
USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance at 35.00 and if good, should clear.
XLE (Energy) 75.19 last swing high, then 77.35 the 2012 high. Like to see today's gap low hold
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The start of the "bond" bubble? If 65.00 holds, could very well be.
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Friendly to this as well
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Looking for 60.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Busted out of its sideways consolidation
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