September 17, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
TheFED gave stocks a temporary intraday reason to party with the now confirmation we needed for the phase change in the small caps, while the Dow ran for its second day to new highs.
However, many individual equities and certain ETFs rallied into resistance or to the top of the recent trading range making today’s announcement of keeping interest rates low very hard to chase for new longs. In fact, the action typified this whole year thus far-looks great, sell, looks horrendous, buy!
Also interesting is that in spite of the FED’s statement that economic growth will remain below expectations (GDP), theinterest rates (Short Bonds) firmed creating the expected havoc in commodities (gold in particular) while the stronger dollar helped the cause of other instruments (financials and certain retailers that have goods produced in the United States).
This is probably a good time to look at Utilities, certain Consumer Staples and several Telecommunications Companies that could fare well given the slower growth prediction with Fed maintaining forcibly low interest rates while they continue to wind down the Bond buying.
And if you read that last sentence aloud and find yourself crinkling your brow thinking WTF-me too!
S&P 500 (SPY) After all said and done this had a doji day (open and closing prices virtually the same). Good news is I get to write that 200 remains pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) Confirmed the bullish phase but the daily chart does not wow here
Dow (DIA) Eked out another new high close
Nasdaq (QQQ) Also a doji day here with 99 pivotal and a move over 100 better odds for new highs
XLF (Financials) New highs as expected
KRE (Regional Banks) Looked a bit confused-On the 0200 DMA but has to make some tracks now above to look convincing
SMH (Semiconductors) I would like to see this hold Wednesdays lows
IYT (Transportation) New highs not unexpected especially with FedEx strong earnings
IBB (Biotechnology) Like SMH, want to see this hold today’s lows
XRT (Retail) I like the consolidation here if can break the range
IYR (Real Estate) If market believes rates will be higher, this looks heavy
ITB (US Home Construction) Crossed over the 200 DMA but stopped right at the August highs-very good spot to watch which way it goes from here
GLD Sold off and now 2013 lows in its midst if cannot clear back over 118.07
Metals and Mining (XME) Confirmed a reversal off the lows in contrast to the gold. Has the 50 DMA to clear if real
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day with 34.77 important to hold
OIH (Oil Services) After Tuesday’s bounce to resistance, Wednesday it retreated from that point and looks vulnerable
XLE (Energy) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Last year many talked about a bubble in rates in spite of the FED action-maybe coming soon
UUP (Dollar Bull) Amazing move this year and now, only looking like the beginning should 22.00 area hold
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Looking at 40.00 again especially after an inside day on the 50 DMA
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