Never Mind the Buzzcocks $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

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Ha! When I read back what I wrote last night about John Q. Public, then look at today's action, I realize why the public tends to lose-they get in too late and out too early! But really, the market hates uncertainty and with headlines all day from North Korea, it seems an already jittery market due to weakness in sectors which have been featured for last 2 weeks-Financials, Retail, Homebuilders, Transportation and Short Bonds, once you add talk of war, the possible key reversal occurs. Let's not forget the small caps. I was ready to divorce myself from the usual analysis on Russell 2000 weakness, yet another negative in a sea of negatives, because of the strong flock to industrial companies. I guess we can say never mind. However, the Dow held the support level. Unless it confirms with more downside tomorrow, this could have been business as usual, volatility with a 100 point move in either direction par for the course. Then, there's the distribution day in volume in the S&P 500. We are mainly cash after enjoying some big swing profits and a few shorts to offset. Uncertainty is not the best environment for swing traders like me as well!

S&P 500 (SPY) Distribution day in volume. Broke the fast moving average but still in a strong bull phase and held the channel top from the point of breakout on March 5th

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke the 50 DMA and now in an unconfirmed warning phase. Sometimes, when instruments get a return move through the 50 DMA, it offers a good low risk long entry. Oversold so watching for that.

Dow (DIA) Held the fast moving average but with a possible brick wall high. Tomorrow will be more telling

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 67.85 is the fast moving average below. Since this never got close to 2012 highs, not totally convinced this is over and done for.

ETFs:

GLD 150 today. Been negative here all year-now, 150 is a support level that could give this a bounce

XLF (Financials) After an inside day, never a good sign when the lows break. Especially, when this was already one of the vulnerable ones we were concerned about. Now on the 50 DMA. Subs: Double the average volume today. Sometimes a sign of a blow off.

IBB (Biotechnology) Possible brick wall high if confirms

SMH (Semiconductors) Another dollar lower and I will be back into this long.

XRT (Retail) Again, after an inside day and the double tops, hindsight is for more aggressive shorts. Now, the 50 DMA is close by

IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed warning phase. See my comments on IWM for return moves

IYR (Real Estate) Brick wall possible but also held the fast moving average. Probably the first place to look if the sharks swim away

USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed warning phase. The 200 DMA is now at hand

OIH (Oil Services) Ugly but approaching support around 40.50

XLE (Energy) Broke the 50 DMA substantially so needs some work now before a new direction up or down

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The best warning sign all along. When the market made new highs, this has stayed in a warning phase.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed weak warning phase and now oversold. We are still above where 2013 began. That means, will begin to look for signs to reenter

UUP (Dollar Bull) Golden Cross forming. Needs to get through 200 weekly MA.

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