March 19, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Last week I was all about the marathon runner who hits the wall and either collapses before or at the finish line, or makes it recharged. The Dow collapsed before the finish line and the S&P 500 made an island top. Now, after nursing the stress fracture, we look for some Gatorade-which could come in the form of Ben Bernanke. I also thought about the Life of Pi today. As SPY held the gap low from March 5th, I began to see the boat at risk from storms, sharks and Richard Parker, while remaining afloat with magical islands appearing when needed most. Regardless of fanciful tales and metaphors, trade with caution until the volatility and uncertainty abate.
S&P 500 (SPY) As mentioned, held 153.60 just ticks away from 03/05 gap low. Now, tug of war between island top and that gap.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 03/05 low, and then closed above the fast moving average. Small caps are still key to whether or not the bull move of 2013 remains or goes away.
Dow (DIA) Also held the fast moving average by end of day. Best case, market worked off overbought conditions. Worse case, the strength of the bull market continues to wane and the 50 DMA becomes a target
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Trapped between the fast and the 50 DMA. 67.50 is key to hold and 68.75 the area to break above
ETFs:
GLD 158 is overhead resistance at the 50 DMA and now, 155 the key to hold
XLF (Financials) Closed under the fast moving average but seems to be finding some support at 18.00
IBB (Biotechnology) The 03/05 gap low is 152.00 and over today's high a return over the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors) 34.75, the 50 DMA magically held. Question is will it continue to.
XRT (Retail) Range expansion day to the downside and some question whether this selloff reflects the coming negative sentiment from consumers rather than the political news from Cyprus
IYT (Transportation) As hard as it would be to buy new highs, seems that is the most logical thing to do rather try to guess where it finds support should market fail some more
IYR (Real Estate) 67.90 the 50 DMA which is still in a strong upward slope
USO (US Oil Fund) Met yesterday's range expansion day with yet another one-albeit red. 33.00 is key support.
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed phase change to weak warning
XLE (Energy) Touched and held the 50 DMA. Will watch the action from here carefully.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Back to unconfirmed warning phase, which I find troubling unless it can get back over the 50 DMA
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 59.90 is key support
XHB (Homebuilders) Cleared 30.00 then turned. However, also held the fast moving average so either way it goes from here should be telling
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.64 key
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